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Thread: Can we talk about this Trump thing?

  1. #751
    Elite Member ShimmeringGlow's Avatar
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    Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election says college professor who is 'almost certain' the Donald will be the next U.S. president




    The numbers don't lie: Norpoth's model has accurately predicted the winner of every national election since 1912, The Statesman reports, except the election of 1960.


    One of the closest elections in U.S. history, John F. Kennedy bested Richard Nixon by 0.17 percent or 112,827 votes.

    Norpoth's model is correct 96.1 percent of the time, suggesting victory is on the horizon for Trump.


    Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical modeling shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election

    'When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.' Norpoth said at a gathering Monday at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan, according to The Stateman.


    He added, 'Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.'


    Trump has won three out of four GOP contests this year and is ahead in polling in most states that vote on Tuesday.


    Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are trying to catch up, but the GOP senators have had to spend much of their time this year pushing out low-polling candidates with little chance of winning who were siphoning off support from their own bids.


    Cruz has won one contest, Iowa, in January, and Rubio has won none. He's come in twice in a row, though, in South Carolina and Nevada.


    Overall, Norpoth said a Republican has a 61 percent chance of winning the general election come November.


    Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of winning if she went up against Cruz or Rubio and Norpoth's model says she'd have 0.3 percent on either of them in the popular vote category.


    They'd beat Sanders, though, he said, by 0.6 percent. That boosts their odds of winning to 60 percent, respectively.
    If Trump is the nominee, those odds go up substantially, Norpoth said.


    'The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost, "take it to the bank." '







    Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election says college professor who is 'almost certain' the Donald will be the next U.S. president | Daily Mail Online


  2. #752
    Elite Member HWBL's Avatar
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    ^Kill me now.
    Warren Beatty: actor, director, writer, producer.

    ***** celeb

  3. #753
    Elite Member ShimmeringGlow's Avatar
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    I'm scared at the possibility of him becoming President. Seriously.

  4. #754
    Elite Member MohandasKGanja's Avatar
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    Since this Norpoth guy is not 120 years old, what he actually did is create a model that takes available data from previous elections and crunches the numbers to come up with who was the eventual winner. It doesn't mean he has predicted anything correctly. And because he is a political science professor it means he probably delegated the actual math and programming to someone else.

    Disregard.

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    Elite Member MontanaMama's Avatar
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    And from Daily Mail. And if he's applying the same model from 1912 (which predated by 2 elections a woman's right to vote), he's likely not even considering the changing demographics of the country.
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    Elite Member MontanaMama's Avatar
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    I approve of the wankpuffin moniker.
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    Elite Member gas_chick's Avatar
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    He may very well become the nominee as scary and sad as that is but that fucker won't win the election but if he does Twitch and/or Tati get ready because I'm moving in.
    I am going to come and burn the fucking house down... but you will blow me first."

  9. #759
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    Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMama View Post
    And from Daily Mail. And if he's applying the same model from 1912 (which predated by 2 elections a woman's right to vote), he's likely not even considering the changing demographics of the country.
    he could've changed the model to account for different social conditions. modeling and predicting election outcomes is what this guy does. do i have the same respect for his credentials as i would for George Box? NO. but that doesn't mean this guy sucks at what he does even though i don't like his outcome. and his graphics techniques are probably not on par with mo's, either.
    MohandasKGanja, sluce and Nevan like this.

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    Elite Member Sojiita's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gas_chick View Post
    He may very well become the nominee as scary and sad as that is but that fucker won't win the election but if he does Twitch and/or Tati get ready because I'm moving in.
    I am coming to. I will be willing to cook and clean, and require minimal in return. I am willing(if I have to) to 'femme' it up and be the sassy older queeny bitter gay friend. "YAAAAS hunty slay that bitch, drag her to filth and slayyyy hunty! She tried it and I snatched that wig gurrlll *bitch*boom*bye*!!
    Don't slap me, cause I'm not in the mood!

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    Quote Originally Posted by gas_chick View Post
    He may very well become the nominee as scary and sad as that is but that fucker won't win the election but if he does Twitch and/or Tati get ready because I'm moving in.
    Too late:


  12. #762
    Elite Member greysfang's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gas_chick View Post
    He may very well become the nominee as scary and sad as that is but that fucker won't win the election but if he does Twitch and/or Tati get ready because I'm moving in.

    I'd head to Norway the minute Zack graduated.
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    Elite Member gas_chick's Avatar
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    What did you post Mo? My stupid work computer only lets me see youtube when it feels like it apparently.
    I am going to come and burn the fucking house down... but you will blow me first."

  14. #764
    Elite Member MohandasKGanja's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gas_chick View Post
    What did you post Mo? My stupid work computer only lets me see youtube when it feels like it apparently.
    The Canadian guy is already building a wall to keep us out.
    gas_chick and panic like this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sojiita View Post
    Somebody really needs to find a pic of what the oval office will look like under a Trump presidency. I am thinking along the lines of Russian Oligarch meeting King Tut's tomb.

    LOL : This White House makeover for President Trump is tasteful and understated
    Well, don't you think the outside will be emblazoned with a giant, tacky, giittery TRUMP logo, just like his buildings, hotels and casinos?

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