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Thread: Barack Obama regaining lead over John McCain in national polls

  1. #16
    Elite Member Fluffy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by witchcurlgirl View Post
    last week they were all wrong, they don't get people with cell phones, no one anyone knows ever gets called, blah, blah...


    why so much more accurate this week?
    I don't think anyone knows for sure. But the typical post-convention bounce (for the last held political convention) appears to be over.

  2. #17
    Elite Member Sweetie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mamaste View Post
    I agree the economy is helping Obama's numbers. Has anyone seen this ad yet? It needs to be played in all 50 states, every hour on the hour:


    [youtube]ONM7148cTyc[/youtube]
    GREAT ad!

  3. #18
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    The ad is great and it looks like he took Clinton's advice - "Make it about the people - not about you".

  4. #19
    Elite Member Fluffy's Avatar
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    An interesting article on the current polls.
    State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble?

    One of the unpleasant things you discover when you sit in major league baseball press boxes from time to time is that the press -- or at least the print media -- actually do not like close baseball games. A walk-off home run or a blown save means that they have to re-write their lead paragraph and perhaps their entire game story, leading to angry phone calls from their editors, and forcing them to work later than they might otherwise like to.

    I was reminded of this when seeing this headline from Mark Halperin today:



    A tight race? It certainly is a tight race, and has been all year. But this, of course, is not really the lead story. The story is that there has been a rather dramatic shift in the national polling toward Barack Obama in the past 2-4 days, coinciding with the Wall Street financial crisis. Some pundits will love this, since it gives them something fresh to talk about. But others, like those cynical beat writers in the Wrigley Field press box, will be annoyed, because it means that the the story they were telling us just a few days ago -- that the Obama campaign was in trouble, that Sarah Palin was the greatest thing since sliced bread -- has now been more or less invalidated.

    Is this shift really a result of the economic crisis? I believe that's part of it, but I believe there are at least two other factors at work as well.

    The first is that McCain's performance in the polls in the 7-10 days following the Republican convention did likely reflect a bounce of some kind, rather than a permanent shift in the state of the race. As I wrote just after the Republican convention concluded:
    [We] should evaluate the robustness of the Republican bounce by how well it holds up to the currents of political time, rather than any specific date on the calendar. Specifically, I would want to see how the bounce holds up to the next major development of the campaign, particularly if it is a pro-Obama development. For example, let's say that Colin Powell endorses Obama tomorrow morning. I might expect a fairly strong reaction to this in the polls, not because the endorsement is all that important unto itself (most endorsements aren't), but because it displaces the GOP Convention as the most recent event of the campaign -- it pushes political time forward. And if the polls didn't move in reaction to such an endorsement, I'd think Democrats would have reason to worry.
    The Wall Street crisis was the first major event of the post-convention news cycle -- the first thing that really tested the robustness of the Republican bounce. And what happened? The bounce proved to be about a mile wide but an inch deep. McCain consolidated elements of his base (evangelical conservatives) during the Republican convention; Obama did likewise with many Clinton Democrats during his convention.

    But the two campaigns also had a tug-of-war over independent voters, with first Obama and then McCain winning them over. Independents, however, are notoriously fickle in their Presidential choices, and as the afterglow of the Republican convention wore off and was replaced by news about the economy, they reverted back to the equilibrium point they've been at all year, roughly splitting their votes between the two candidates (Quinnipaic has independents dividing their vote 46-45 as of this morning).

    McCain's other problem is that Sarah Palin may no longer be an asset to the ticket; in fact, she may be a liability. Averaging the candidates' favorability scores across four recent polls -- as one should always try and do when looking at favorability numbers since they can vary greatly depending on question wording -- Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race:



    Palin's average favorability score is now a +7 -- about 10 points behind Joe Biden's numbers. Perhaps more importantly, these numbers are 10-15 points behind where Palin's numbers were just a week or so ago. If voters come in not knowing very much about a candidate -- and the more they see of the candidate, the less they like of the candidate -- this is a major concern.

    The McCain campaign may be in some trouble. We should learn over the next several days, as further polling results roll in, whether they are in a little trouble or a lot of trouble. I would certainly not rule out the latter possibility. There are now 46 days left until the election. The Obama campaign must feel like, if they can spend 35-40 of those days talking about the economy, they are in a very strong position. Excepting the three or four days surrounding the foreign policy debate in Mississippi next week, and the residual possibility of an unanticipated foreign policy crisis, the inertia of the campaign probably means that they will have the opportunity to do so.

    Unless, of course, the McCain campaign can throw up some roadblocks and distractions. McCain's is a creative campaign -- more creative in many ways than the Obama campaign. As such, we should not discount the possibility of their finding an effective way to alter the momentum, perhaps one -- like their 'celebrity' critique of Obama -- that was difficult to envision in advance.

    At the same time, the campaign cost itself a lot of credibility -- certainly with the media, and to a lesser extent with voters -- with some of their shenanigans of the past week, most notably Lipstickgate, "Thanks, but no thanks", and the Obama kindergarten commercial. To use a crude metaphor, the McCain campaign may have blown its wad too early. Organic shifts in the momentum of the race can and probably will still occur, but they may find it more difficult now to synthesize one.
    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble?

  5. #20
    Elite Member AllieCat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sweetie View Post
    GREAT ad!

    I agree. It's getting everyone back to the issues at hand.

  6. #21
    Elite Member kingcap72's Avatar
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    Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race:
    The lipstick has worn off.

  7. #22
    Elite Member ManxMouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingcap72 View Post
    The lipstick has worn off.
    Pit bulls aren't so purty without their lipstick.
    Santa is an elitist mother fucker -- giving expensive shit to rich kids and nothing to poor kids.

  8. #23
    Elite Member cupcake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmmdee View Post
    Obama's dreamy
    BARFFFF
    My grace is sufficient for you, for my my strength is made perfect in weakness...I love you dad!
    Rip Mom

  9. #24
    Elite Member *DIVA!'s Avatar
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    That was a great ad by Obama.. It gets back to the issues at stake, instead of lipstick and lies...

    Here in the good ol' swing state of Maryland, it's McCain lies all day...oh wait we always go blue wth, keep wasting your money in Maryland, McCain.
    Baltimore O's ​Fan!

    I don''t know if she really fucked the board though. Maybe just put the tip in. -Mrs. Dark

  10. #25
    Hit By Ban Bus! Lily's Avatar
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    Gobama!!!!!!!!!

  11. #26
    Elite Member cupcake's Avatar
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    Good ad but He reminds me of the used car salesman.. he hasnt sold me yet..
    My grace is sufficient for you, for my my strength is made perfect in weakness...I love you dad!
    Rip Mom

  12. #27
    Elite Member *DIVA!'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cupcake View Post
    Good ad but He reminds me of the used car salesman.. he hasnt sold me yet..
    Are you open to what he is saying, or are you going in it half jilted? Maybe you should vote for the party you usually vote for at election time.
    Baltimore O's ​Fan!

    I don''t know if she really fucked the board though. Maybe just put the tip in. -Mrs. Dark

  13. #28
    Elite Member cupcake's Avatar
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    Im open to it..I just dont rreally trust any of them and nov is around the corner
    My grace is sufficient for you, for my my strength is made perfect in weakness...I love you dad!
    Rip Mom

  14. #29
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    Very good news for Obama,I feel it is this bad economy. Palin is wearing off some,finally. Hope Obama's lead increases more through the weeks.

  15. #30
    Elite Member kingcap72's Avatar
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    Obama rebounds in polls as economic crisis bites
    AFP
    Democrat Barack Obama topped two key national polls Thursday which showed the financial crisis reverberating through the White House race and "Palin power" fading for the Republican ticket.
    The Democratic hopeful, who has been lacerating rival John McCain over his capacity to rescue the US economy, led 49 to 45 percent in a new poll of likely voters nationwide by Quinnipiac University.
    In a CBS/New York Times survey, Obama was up by 48 percent to 43 percent, with the race apparently reverting to the narrow Democratic ascendency seen before two presidential nominating conventions.
    McCain's selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate had rocked the race and electrified the conservative base, pushing the Republican into the lead in polls and spreading panic among some Democrats.
    But recent opinion snapshots polls appear to show Palin's injection of momentum for McCain diminishing.
    "Senator Obama is right back where he was before the so-called convention bounces with a four-point lead," said Maurice Carroll, director the Quinnipiac University polling institute.
    "The Democratic discombobulation after the selection of Governor Palin as GOP running mate seems to be steadying."
    The Quinnipiac survey suggested that economic arguments may be swaying support towards Obama.
    In the poll, 51 percent said that McCain's proposed tax cut will help the rich while only nine percent say it will aid the middle class.
    Thirty-three percent say Obama's tax plans will help the middle class and only nine percent say it will benefit the rich.
    The Quinnipiac poll showed that Obama led 54-40 percent among women voters, the key demographic which Palin is targeting for Republicans.
    He had a 91 percent lead among African-Americans and was the favorite of young voters and those over 55, while independents were split 46 to 45 percent.
    McCain did best among men, 50-43 percent and led 71 percent to 21 percent among white evangelical Christians -- a figure reflecting Palin's impact on core Republican voters.
    The survey was conducted between September 11 and Tuesday, so is likely to have been influenced by the latest US financial crisis which erupted at the weekend.
    The CBS survey found that independents who favored Obama in late August moved to McCain in days following the Republican convention, then returned to Obama in the last week, the survey showed.
    Independents favored Obama over McCain by 46 percent to 41 percent in the survey conducted between September 12 and 16 with a margin of error of three percent.
    The CBS poll also showed that despite McCain's attempts to seize the mantle of "change" from Obama, voters were more likely to see the Democratic candidate as an agent of reform -- by 65 to 37 percent.

    The poll also found that women have returned to Obama after favoring McCain by five points just two weeks ago. Obama now leads McCain by 54 percent to 38 percent among all women.
    Though Obama has the edge on the national stage, another fresh survey by CNN/Time magazine/Opinion Research Corp. had the two candidates virtually tied in five pivotal states: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.
    Obama and McCain were expected to renew their battle over the global credit crisis, after central banks injected more than 300 billion dollars into the markets and pressure mounted on Morgan Stanley and Swiss bank UBS.
    Obama was campaigning in the key western battleground of New Mexico, while McCain and Palin were due to stump in midwestern Iowa, which polls show is trending towards the Democrats and battleground Wisconsin.
    On Wednesday, the candidates traded stinging blows over the crisis as Obama ridiculed McCain as a lifelong member of the "old boys' network" that the Republican said had driven the US economy into crisis.
    McCain vowed to take on Wall Street's "casino culture" after the US government's 85-billion-dollar bailout of giant insurer American International Group, the latest shock of a horrific fortnight for the financial industry.
    Both candidates indicated the Federal Reserve's lifeline was regrettable but necessary to prevent AIG's troubles engulfing the wider economy. Ahead of the November 4 election, Obama is driving home his polling edge on the economy to hammer his Republican adversary as out of touch with voters' anxieties in the face of rising job losses and home seizures.
    Obama rebounds in polls as economic crisis bites

    It looks like the economic problems are playing to Obama's strengths and McCain's weaknesses.

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