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Thread: Barack Obama closing the gap in Pennsylvania April 22 Democratic Primary

  1. #31
    Elite Member Cali's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sluce View Post
    Sorry but I live in PA. The middle class are pissed and feel he was insulting them. It has not gone over well here especially in the middle class, blue collar areas he had hoped to attract. he shot himself in the ass with his statement.
    I'm in western PA and everyone here is like 'damn right I"m bitter!' the farms and factories have all closed, people barely live above the poverty line. Everyone I've spoken with here is glad a politician finally spoke up and voiced it.

    I mean really, read what he actually said, not what the idiots on TV are trying to pretend he said:

    'Here's how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long, and they feel so betrayed by government, and when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn't buy it. And when it's delivered by -- it's true that when it's delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama (laugher), then that adds another layer of skepticism (laughter). [...]

    But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there's not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.'

  2. #32
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    I think that this have been blown way out of proportion by the media and folks who do not know what how an actual working class family feels nor are they concerned with how they are making their ends meet. People are pissed, and bitter and they feel as though they have been left out of the fold. In time of crisis people do gravitate to what comforts them or feed an emotional need of answer... more than not it is religion to some. People pray for a way out, people pray for help to feed their families, people pray for ways to make payment so the forclosures on their homes to stop, people pray for everything..but sometimes in the midst of praying some people become very angry as bitterness sets in-turning a harmless Christian into a radical one.

    I have talked to quite a few people about his statements and they believe and feel he is spot on and wish that other politicians saw things they way he do. Most who are angry are out of touch with everyday, working class people!!!
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  3. #33
    Elite Member yanna's Avatar
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    What I get from this:

    Aw, bless, those poor people are skeptical because I'm black. It's not their fault those poor dears who got fucked from everyone and now they cling to their guns and their bigotry. Awwww.

    It was disgustingly insulting. This man cannot get his point accross without insulting people and I shudder to think what damage he could do on an international level.

  4. #34
    Elite Member witchcurlgirl's Avatar
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    I get a real kick out of how in the case of Obama's statements it's the "media blowing this out of proportion" but when it was the Clinton/Bosnia thing of course the "media" was entirely justified in making the big thing that they did out of it.

    "And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not"

    The above pisses me off, as he is equating the Clinton administration with the Bush administration. This is a man that keeps talking about unity, but he chooses to smear the only successful two term Democratic president we've had in 40 years. That's good for the party. BTW, the Clinton administration helped pull 6 million people out of poverty.....under Bush 5 million have fallen below the poverty line.

    Folks may be bitter, but are they all gun toting religious racists that "cling" to these things out of poverty???? Because that was the real point of his statement.
    Last edited by witchcurlgirl; April 14th, 2008 at 10:07 AM. Reason: spelling
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  5. #35
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    The Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania is getting even closer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Thursday night, the night following a nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.

    Obama’s support appears to be a bit softer than Clinton’s at this point in time. Six percent (6%) of Obama voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Only 2% of Clinton supporters say the same.

    Overall, with less than a week to go, 9% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided, 3% say there’s a good chance they will change their mind, and another 12% might change their mind. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Clinton leads 53% to 47%.

    Perhaps the worst news in the survey for Clinton has nothing to do with the race getting closer. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that the Superdelegates should honor the results of the primaries even if “something happens to convince Superdelegates that Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating John McCain.” If Clinton is deemed more electable, just 33% believe that the Superdelegates should select her over Obama. Clinton’s only viable path to the nomination is to convince the Superdelegates that they should vote for her despite Obama’s edge among pledged delegates Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

  6. #36
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    Released: April 20, 2008

    Newsmax/Zogby Poll: The Pennsylvania Race Remains Tight
    UTICA, New York—New York's Hillary Clinton remains barely ahead of rival Barack Obama of Illinois leading up to Tuesday's presidential primary in Pennsylvania, a new Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.
    Her advantage is a statistically insignificant three points, 46% to 43%, over Obama, as support in the race ebbs and flows within a tight margin—she led by five points yesterday. The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 18-19, 2008, included 11% who were either undecided or supported someone else.
    The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 607 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The daily tracking in the Keystone state will continue through Monday evening, with the final release issued early on Election Day.
    Pennsylvania
    4-18/19
    4-17/18
    4-16/17
    4-15/16
    Clinton
    46%
    47%
    47%
    45%
    Obama
    43%
    42%
    43%
    44%
    Someone else
    3%
    3%
    2%
    3%
    Not sure
    8%
    8%
    8%
    9%

    Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
    Pollster John Zogby: "Okay, so let's play Confound the Pollsters. Obama, who polled a mere 40% yesterday had a good today at 46% to Clinton's 44%. We quadruple-checked our Saturday sample and it is solid. Perhaps the buzz from both his San Francisco statements and the ABC debate has subsided. He picked up a few more points in Philadelphia and the east, where he has been leading, in the central state area, and up-ticked a bit with men. Clinton seems to have added a few points in the Pittsburgh region. But a very close examination of these numbers over the five days we have been tracking shows that it is whites and Catholics who are undecided. They clearly do not like Clinton and are definitely not breaking for Obama. They compose a pretty big chunk of Democratic voters who say they will vote for McCain in the general election. If this small group of white/Catholic undecideds do not vote, Obama can win Pennsylvania if he is able to get out his base of young voters, African American voters, and Very Liberal voters. If those white/Catholics do vote, then they will probably vote for Clinton and she can conceivably meet the 10-point victory threshold that meets pundits' expectations. It looked like she was moving some of these voters after the debate, but today is a different story. Too soon to tell."
    As Zogby mentions, this latest Newsmax/Zogby two-day tracking poll shows Obama had a good day in eastern Pennsylvania, where he campaigned at several stops. Meanwhile, Clinton retains a big lead in western Pennsylvania and a sturdy lead in central Pennsylvania, including the state capital of Harrisburg.
    But in every demographic group, the race has become remarkably stable. Clinton leads by 11 points among women, while Obama leads by 7 points among men. Obama leads among those under age 54, while Clinton holds an edge among those age 55 and older.
    She leads among Catholics, 58% to 26%, reflecting a small gain for Obama. But Clinton gained among Protestants yesterday and now trails Obama by 14 points. The two religious demographic groups are roughly the same size in Pennsylvania.
    Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads by 19 points, up 7 points over yesterday. Clinton leads by a small margin among mainline liberals, and by larger margins among moderates and conservative Democratic primary voters.
    The economy continues to be the most important issue to voters, and they continue to favor Clinton over Obama in terms of choosing a candidate who would both help their personal financial situation, and help the U.S. economy at large.
    Clinton was also seen as the candidate who better understands Pennsylvania—56% said as much, while just 29% said Obama better understands the state, this most recent polling showed. However, Obama made a small gain on this question in the last day's polling.

    For a detailed methodology statement on this survey, please visit:
    http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1297

  7. #37
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    Source: Public Policy Polling

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 21, 2008

    INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media
    inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)

    QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

    Final Pennsylvania Poll Shows Tight Race

    Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s final survey in Pennsylvania continues to show
    an extremely tight race. Barack Obama has a 49-46 lead over Hillary Clinton in the state.

    This is the fourth week in a row PPP has shown the race within three points. Obama had
    a three point edge last week, Clinton had the three point advantage two weeks ago, and
    Obama was up two three weeks ago.

    “With such a close race, the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down
    to turnout,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama leads 58-32
    in the metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance.”

    When people were initially asked who they supported in the poll Obama showed a 47-43
    advantage. Undecided respondents were asked if they were leaning toward one of the
    candidates and the 49-46 lead comes with those factored in.

    Obama’s small lead comes from his standard coalition of men, black and younger voters.
    He leads 55-34 with men and 81-12 with African Americans. He has a 50-39 edge with
    voters ages 18-29 and 49-41 with those between 30-45.

    Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_0421...

  8. #38
    Elite Member sluce's Avatar
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    Looks like you can find a difference of opinion depending on which poll you choose to publish.

    Clinton rating up again on eve of Pennsylvania primary_English_Xinhua

    Clinton rating up again on eve of Pennsylvania primary



    WASHINGTON, April. 21 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Democratic presidential contender Sen. Hillary Clinton saw her rating rebound on the eve of Tuesday's pivotal primary in Pennsylvania, according to polls released Monday.

    A Zogby International tracking poll of 602 likely primary voters taken April 19-20 shows that Clinton leads her Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent.

    In the same poll last weekend Clinton led just 45 percent to 44percent, but she has steadily opened her lead in Zogby's daily tracking since then.

    An American Research Group poll of 600 likely primary voters taken April 17-19 shows Clinton leading Obama 54 percent to 41 percent.

    A Strategic Vision poll of 1,200 likely Pennsylvania voters taken April 18-20 shows Clinton leading Obama 48 percent to 41 percent.

    In general election trial heats, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona tops both Clinton(46 percent to 42 percent) and Obama (48 percent to 40 percent).
    The New York Times said although the new polls show Clinton still maintained a lead over Obama, the margin is down from about16-point weeks ago.

    It also argued the new "metric" for judging the outcome of the Pennsylvania primary will be the margin of Clinton's victory, and the calculations will begin again on the new measuring grounds of contests in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6.

    The New York Daily said many observers believe Clinton has to do decisively well in Pennsylvania to keep party insiders from backing Obama and pushing her out of the contest.

    The Democratic race for the party nomination is far from over and neither Clinton nor Obama is likely to get enough delegates going to the national convention to declare victory very soon.

    However, as Obama leads Clinton in the delegate count by about 140, she is facing growing pressure to quit the race "for the benefit of the party."

    Here is the overview of 9 different polls. Only 1 shows Obama leading at all. The other 8 show Clinton leading by an average of 6 points.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Pennsylvania Democratic Primary

  9. #39
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    I've heard Obama could be within 100 delegates of clinching the nomination by the time the primaries are over. (counting newly pledged superdelegates)

  10. #40
    Elite Member yanna's Avatar
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    Didn't Hillary win this one by 10 points?

  11. #41
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    Yes. I'm pissed.

  12. #42
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    k, Hillbot was predicted to win PA a year ago. Everybody knew she would, but she was supposed to win by 20. SHe only got 10. That's news.

    She still can't win overall. It's actually impossible for her, but she'll keep going anyway because she's insane.
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  13. #43
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    OK my American friends, I have 2 questions:

    1. Who will win the Democrat nomination?
    2. Who will be the next POTUS?

    The rest is window dressing.
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  14. #44
    Elite Member yanna's Avatar
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    From all the latest polls i thought it would be a tighter race but didn't know Hillary was that far ahead in the beginning.

    I prefer Hillary but I'm good with either as long as Democrats win. Which might not be so easy with how they are tearing each other to bits now.

  15. #45
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    So is the Democrat candidate (whoever that is) going to beat McCain? And where is he BTW? Invisible Man.......
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