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Thread: Electoral College looks better for Obama

  1. #1
    Elite Member bychance's Avatar
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    Exclamation Electoral College looks better for Obama

    Electoral College looks better for Obama - Yahoo! News

    Here's a snapshot of what the Electoral College looks like on the Yahoo! News Political Dashboard. Barack Obama is ahead, but what the map doesn't show at first glance is that many states could be in play.
    This dashboard map is based on the Real Clear Politics poll averages from Sunday night. If America's vote mirrors these polls, Obama would get 353 electoral votes, far surpassing the 270 needed to win the presidency. (Note: A new poll out overnight moves North Carolina's poll average to an exact tie, putting Obama's total at 338 Monday morning.)




    Yahoo! News Dashboard as of Nov. 2


    This doesn't mean John McCain doesn't have a chance. He does -- in fact, a bigger one than this map indicates. Polls can be wrong. (We've described why here.) The poll averages that populate this map are closer than what the declarative blue and red colors imply.

    In nine battleground states the difference between the candidates' poll numbers equals 5 points or less on average. That's more than 100 electoral votes up for grabs from Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, Virginia, Ohio and yes, McCain's Arizona.

    Another eight states are considered leaning toward a candidate, meaning the difference between the candidates' poll numbers are less that 10 points on average. Obama leads in five of those states: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

    Even though Obama leads in Pennsylvania now, it's probably a great hope on McCain's map because of the movement there over the past two weeks. McCain has cut what was once a 14-point Obama lead in half.

    The other states are leaning McCain. They include South Dakota, West Virginia and Arkansas.

    Obama has a much better Electoral College map to start with when we look at the states each candidate can count on for support. The states that are solidly in the Obama's column outnumber McCain's by 238 electoral votes to 118.


    That means if Obama does win in those states considered bankable, he only has to get 32 more electoral college votes to win the whole thing. Those 32 could be easily made up by any arrangement of states, for example a Pennsylvania/Virginia win would put Obama over 270.


    A few poll notes

    If fiddling with the Electoral College map is not your thing, here are a few notes about individual polls released over the weekend:
    - The final Gallup poll puts Obama up by 11. Gallup notes Obama's lead is the largest they've tracked in the campaign.
    - The widely respected Mason-Dixon poll declares Florida too close to call.
    - The final Pew poll has Obama up by 6 points.

  2. #2
    Elite Member nwgirl's Avatar
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    I've lost my voice over the last couple of days, so I won't be able to shout with joy when the reports start coming in that Obama won.
    "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits."

  3. #3
    Gold Member ymeman's Avatar
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    gd NC is blue on that map.

    NC

    blue

    NC

    blue

    pinch me, am I dreaming? I don't want to wake up....

  4. #4
    Elite Member cmmdee's Avatar
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    VA is looking nice and blue, too.

    Go Obama!

  5. #5
    Elite Member McJag's Avatar
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    None of this happens ,unless you all vote.
    I didn't start out to collect diamonds, but somehow they just kept piling up.-Mae West

  6. #6
    Elite Member Mivvi21's Avatar
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    I'll believe it when I see it. There are too many dumb people in this country who just can't wait to fuck the rest of us over with their idiotic vote for McCain. After all,these are the same people who gave us Bush for 2 terms.

  7. #7
    Hit By Ban Bus!
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    Damn, Alabama will remain red!


  8. #8
    Elite Member Just Kill Me's Avatar
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    I really wish the electoral college would just go the fuck away.
    KILLING ME WON'T BRING BACK YOUR GOD DAMNED HONEY!!!!!!!!!!

    Come on, let's have lots of drinks.

    Fuck you all, I'm going viral.

  9. #9
    Elite Member Little Wombat's Avatar
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    I can't believe this map has Maryland and DC as grey. DC's more blue than Utah is red. And Maryland is reliably blue as well.
    "Oh! I've been looking for a red suede pump!"
    - Marie (Carrie Fisher), When Harry Met Sally

  10. #10
    Elite Member Just Kill Me's Avatar
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    Where is the microscopic speck of black to represent me saying "Let's get this shit over with already!!!!!" somewhere in Houston?
    KILLING ME WON'T BRING BACK YOUR GOD DAMNED HONEY!!!!!!!!!!

    Come on, let's have lots of drinks.

    Fuck you all, I'm going viral.

  11. #11
    Elite Member Sojiita's Avatar
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    unusually perfect Ohio weather tomorrow..sunny and temps in the low 70's ...extraordinary for Ohio this time of year(good weather on election day in Ohio(as in many areas) usually favors the Dems!)...Hopefully it will be an extraordinary day in many ways tomorrow!

    The whole nation is going to mostly have very good weather tomorrow! A good sign.
    Don't slap me, cause I'm not in the mood!

  12. #12
    Elite Member NicoleWasHere's Avatar
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    WHY IS MISSOURI RED?! *uber head desk* WHY?!

  13. #13
    Elite Member Beeyotch's Avatar
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    Bwahahaahahahaha! Florida is BLUE!!! I can't believe it. I'll be so proud if it stays that way on election night. The state's new tag line will be "Florida: finally NOT an election fuck-up."

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    Elite Member Belinda's Avatar
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    ^Please stay blue so L1049 won't have to break out the Bugs Bunny gif.

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    Elite Member RevellingInSane's Avatar
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    Why am I not surprised MS and LA are red?

    Hello! Dumbasses, remember the GOP? You know, the same bastards who were buying shoes and laughing while your asses were clinging to trees?

    Some people are as dumb as rocks!



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