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Thread: Zogby: Statistical dead heat

  1. #1
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    Default Zogby: Statistical dead heat

    Zogby: Statistical dead heat

    By Herald Staff | Tuesday, October 14, 2008

    Photo by AP

    Zogby International called the presidential race a “statistical dead heat,” yesterday citing a slip in the polls by Democrat Barack Obama, though major polls continued to show more significant leads over Republican John McCain.

    Zogby recorded 47.9 percent support for Obama among likely voters, and 43.6 percent for McCain, a 4.3-point spread.

    “In this latest report, McCain gained eight-tenths of a point, while Obama lost one full point,” Zogby reported. “While the worldwide economic system underwent dramatic turmoil last week, the poll shows the presidential race remarkably unchanged overall at the end of the first full week of daily tracking. Through the week, Obama has always held a small lead, as large as 6.1 points (on Saturday) and as little as 1.9 points (last Wednesday).”

    Meanwhile, Gallup polling, which has given double-digit leads among all registered voters for the past week, tightened into single digits over the weekend. Sunday, for the first time in a week, Gallup recorded a 7-point lead, with 50 percent of registered voters preferring Obama to 43 percent for McCain. Polling of likely voters has been even tighter, with Obama’s lead shrinking to 4 points.

    Obama’s lead in the latest Gallup three-day average among registered voters remained in double digits at 10 points, while his lead among likely voters was 7 points.

  2. #2
    Elite Member celeb_2006's Avatar
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    O.K. perhaps I might be celebrating a bit too early but I have to admit it is still too dangerous to totally write off Mccain. They called him the comeback kid or something of the sort in the primaries, right? To me the percentage point lead by Obama in various polls are a bit too close for my comfort. You can never estimate the public with polls.

  3. #3
    Elite Member WesCAdle's Avatar
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    Chokey Chicken on the Left Coast


    All the pundits and alleged experts expect the race to tighten over the next three weeks, so this is no surprise to me. Although the Quinnipiac Polling is usually considered one of the more accurate of the group.
    as privileged as a whore...victims in demand for public show, swept out through the cracks beneath the door, holier than thou, how?

  4. #4
    Elite Member sluce's Avatar
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    Oct 2005
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    That's interesting because fi you look at all the polls averaged together Obama now leads by 7.3%. That's the biggest lead yet.

    RCP Average 10/06 - 10/13 -- 49.9 42.6 Obama +7.3
    Rasmussen Tracking 10/11 - 10/13 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
    Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking 10/11 - 10/13 1208 LV 49 43 Obama +6
    Hotline/FD Tracking 10/11 - 10/13 829 LV 48 42 Obama +6
    Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/11 - 10/13 2140 LV 51 45 Obama +6
    Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/11 - 10/13 2289 LV 53 43 Obama +10
    GW/Battleground Tracking 10/08 - 10/13 800 LV 53 40 Obama +13
    IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/06 - 10/12 825 LV 45 43 Obama +2
    USA Today/Gallup (Traditional)* 10/10 - 10/12 761 LV 50 46 Obama +4
    USA Today/Gallup (Expanded)* 10/10 - 10/12 1030 LV 52 45 Obama +7
    ABC News/Wash Post 10/08 - 10/11 766 LV 53 43 Obama +10
    FOX News 10/08 - 10/09 900 RV 46 39 Obama +7
    Newsweek 10/08 - 10/09 1035 RV 52 41 Obama +11

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