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Thread: John McCain pulls ahead in the polls despite 8 years of abject neocon FAILURE

  1. #1
    Elite Member Grimmlok's Avatar
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    Thumbs down John McCain pulls ahead in the polls despite 8 years of abject neocon FAILURE

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

    McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

    The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

    The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.

    "There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama."

    McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

    That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.

    McCain has been on the offensive against Obama during the last month over energy concerns, with polls showing strong majorities supporting his call for an expansion of offshore oil drilling as gasoline prices hover near $4 a gallon.

    Obama had opposed new offshore drilling, but said recently he would support a limited expansion as part of a comprehensive energy program.

    That was one of several recent policy shifts for Obama, as he positions himself for the general election battle. But Zogby said the changes could be taking a toll on Obama's support, particularly among Democrats and self-described liberals.

    "That hairline difference between nuance and what appears to be flip-flopping is hurting him with liberal voters," Zogby said.

    Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.

    OBAMA NEEDS TO WORK ON BASE

    "Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his."

    The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters.

    "There were no wild swings, there isn't one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board," Zogby said.

    Obama's support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52 percent. McCain, who will turn 72 next week, was winning 40 percent of younger voters.

    "Those are not the numbers Obama needs to win," Zogby said about Americans under 30. The 47-year-old is counting on a strong turnout among young voters, a key bloc of support during his primary battle with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

    It made little difference when independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, who are both trying to add their names to state ballots.

    McCain still held a 5-point edge over Obama, 44 percent to 39 percent, when all four names were included. Barr earned 3 percent and Nader 2 percent.

    Most national polls have given Obama a narrow lead over McCain throughout the summer. In the Reuters/Zogby poll, Obama had a 5-point lead in June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination, and an 8-point lead on McCain in May.

    The telephone poll of 1,089 likely voters had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

    The poll was taken as both candidates head into their nominating conventions and the announcements of their choices of vice presidential picks. The Democratic convention begins on Monday in Denver, with the Republican convention opening the next Monday, September 1, in St. Paul, Minnesota.

    McCain takes 5-point lead over Obama-Reuters poll | Politics | Reuters
    stupid stupid STUPID

    Sorry folks, but it looks like Obama is tanking like Kerry. By the time they get around to the debates, whatever bump he gets from them will merely make up a small amount of what he's lost during the time leading up to them.

    Stupid idiot. FIGHT BACK! Jesus!
    I am from the American CIA and I have a radio in my head. I am going to kill you.

  2. #2
    Elite Member Grimmlok's Avatar
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    More bad news.

    (NOTE FROM JOHN: Rob's post is long. Please take 5 minutes and read it. It's quite possibly the best thing we've ever published in four years of running this blog. I've been wanting Rob to write for us (again) for a long while (he wrote a bit at the beginning, then got a real job). Rob used to be, arguably, the Republicans' top Internet political strategist until he defected around the year 2000. Rob's encyclopedic knowledge of politics, of dates and figures, of polls and data and electoral history, is downright scary. Read this post, then share it with someone. Thanks, JOHN)

    Last week Pew Research released their latest poll on the Presidential election. It has the horse race question at 46-43 for Obama - within margin of error. At this point in 2004, Kerry led Bush 47-45, in 1992 Clinton led Bush 57-37.

    The Pew poll shows the following:

    - Three weeks ago Obama had a statistically significant 8 point lead. Today he's got a 3 point lead with a 2.5% margin of error. The race is effectively a tie.

    -McCain has solidified his base and now gets 87% of Republicans to Obama's 82% of Democrats. There has been no shift in Clinton supporters since June - 72% will vote for Obama, 18% of McCain with 10% undecided. Only 6% of Republican primary voters who supported other candidates indicate they will vote for Obama.


    -McCain is now over 50% with white voters, 51% overall, leads Obama in all groups other than college graduates where they are tied, and McCain is now at 60% with white voters in the south, a 7 point move in three weeks. These numbers all mirror the same vote breakdown in 2000 and 2004. The only group that has flipped since 2004 is 18-29 where Obama leads with 51% - a 13 point shift since 2000.

    -McCain's support among evangelical voters has moved up 7 points since June.
    In a series of either/or trait questions, voters believe McCain is personally qualified to be president (54-27), shows good judgment in a crisis, (51-36), and is willing to take a stand even if it's unpopular (49-38). Obama leads on having new ideas (69-17), connects well with people (57-30), and, interestingly, shares my values (47-39).
    When supporters of a candidate were asked to find something they like most about the opponent, 53% of McCain supporters said nothing at all, compared to 34% of Obama supporters. 37% of Obama supporters said McCain's personal abilities and experiences were what they liked most about McCain, only 11% of McCain supporters said the same about Obama.

    -More disturbingly for Obama, when asked what they liked most about the candidates, 40% noted McCain's personal abilities and experience. The number one answer on Obama? Nothing - 28% - a volunteered answer, not an option provided by the pollster but recorded only if volunteered by the voter. Obama's position on economic issues was second at 24%.

    -When asked what troubled them most about the candidates, voters said for McCain it was his position on economic issues (26%) and his position on foreign policy issues (25%). For Obama, it was his personal abilities and experience (33%). Obama has a higher level of strong support than McCain. 27% of voters strongly support Obama to 17% for McCain.

    -One in three voters may change their mind between now and election day - 46% of independent voters indicate they may switch.

    -Voters are paying closer attention to the election. Comparing the same timeframe, August, attention is at levels not seen since 1992.

    While some here think everything is going just fine, and that Obama has a secret plan lying in wait, I ask you to think back a year ago. Imagine if someone had told you that the most charismatic Democratic speaker in a decade would be in a dead-heat with a Republican has-been corrupt waffler - you would have laughed in their face. After eight years of George Bush? No way, people are fed up - that'll never happen.

    Well, that's the reality today. This race is a dead heat and is up for grabs both in the national polls as well as in key states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, etc. Face reality folks - something isn't working.

    While some say ignore the polls at this stage, you can't really do that. To be sure, some polls are worth looking at and some are worth ignoring. How do you tell the difference?

    Let's talk about polling methodology. There are two different ways to poll - registered voters and likely voters. At this stage, I ignore likely voter polls. Why? Well after a primary full of polling errors, I'm skeptical that anyone at this stage in the game can really determine who a likely voter is. (Read more about likely voter methodology on my prior post.)

    Having said that, we do have a more accurate indicator - the registered voter poll. In order to be able to vote in an election, you have to be registered. Registered voters are the total universe of possible voters in November. Now Obama's campaign will tell you that they are registering tons of new voters. That's great, but those people are already showing up in registered voter polls. One of the first questions asked by the pollster is usually "are you registered to vote?" - all the people Obama has registered will answer that question yes and will be included in the current poll results.

    Now some have raised the question of whether mobile-phone only households - generally younger and possibly new voters - are being missed by the polls. Sorry to burst the bubble folks, but the good polling firms have already addressed this question and resolved it. Polling panels are now comprised of phone interviews (including mobile phones) as well as online polling. The Pew poll specifically addresses this issue on page 11 of this PDF file - page 10 of the report. A well executed registered voter poll at this point in the race is a relevant barometer of where the country is today.

    So then what does the Pew poll say about where we are and what to do moving ahead? What is says is that the demographic breakdown of the 2008 vote looks an awful lot like 2004, and 2000. You can draw from that, and other public polls, that the same states in play in 2004 will likely be in play in 2008, and that the races in those states are highly competitive. The Pew poll says that voters are concerned about McCain's stand on the economy and on foreign policy (i.e., Iraq), but that they aren't yet sold on Barack Obama and question his experience. They like Obama's positions on the economy, but they aren't there yet.

    Not all is lost folks, Obama has time and money to make a shift. But if you thought that somehow this year was going to be different - something would change and somehow the American electorate would look completely different this year than any other year, the numbers today just don't show that. This isn't a transformative election, it's another hardscrabble, claw out each and every vote, election. To win that kind of election, you need to fight for every vote and fight hard. That's why you hear the concern you hear from Josh Marshall, John, Joe, etc. And it's backed up by years of experience watching the Republicans make Democrats look weak - Carter, Mondale, Gore, and Kerry. That line of attack works when not countered and we were defeated. None of us want that in 2008.

    AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth
    Sadly, it doesn't feel good to be validated that i was fucking right.
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  3. #3
    Elite Member kingcap72's Avatar
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    I'm not surprised that McCain's pulled ahead in the polls. McCain is taking a page from Hillary's handbook from the primaries. He attacks Obama hard, while Obama is being Mr. Nice Guy, sees a brief bump in the polls, which doesn't last. The poll numbers will go back up during/after the convention. I'm not concerned.

    The fact of the matter is, no matter which one has a lead in the polls now this is going to be a close election in November, and neither one will win by a landslide.

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    You are right. Never underestimate the Repubs or the will of the people.

  5. #5
    Elite Member dangerous's Avatar
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    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo!

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    Bronze Member beascott's Avatar
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    Catching up now'll be pretty tough for him.

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    Elite Member sputnik's Avatar
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    aaargh, what the fuck is wrong with people?!! seriously! how can they even need to think about it, much less make the retarded choice of voting for the republicans?
    please, someone, find a john mccain sex tape with a tranny hooker! maybe a kinky POW camp role play thing, you know, reliving the good old days... it's our only hope.

    signed,
    the rest of the world
    I'm open to everything. When you start to criticise the times you live in, your time is over. - Karl Lagerfeld

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    Elite Member Rondette's Avatar
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    Dammit, I knew this was going to happen.

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    Elite Member yanna's Avatar
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    It's just sad that a sex scandal is pretty much the only thing that would stop McCain while it's obvious that his party's policies JUST DON'T WORK. Who needs more proof after 8 years of Bush?

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    Elite Member Grimmlok's Avatar
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    uh, apparently the people who want to vote for more of it.
    I am from the American CIA and I have a radio in my head. I am going to kill you.

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    Elite Member bychance's Avatar
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    This is depressing.

    I know people often make this joke 'I'm moving to ... if McCain/Bush is president,' but I'm seriously considering it now. I really can't it anymore.
    Last edited by bychance; August 24th, 2008 at 11:36 AM.

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    Elite Member nana55's Avatar
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    Relax people. It will all be O.K. Remember pollsters can't call cell phones and most of the young people only use cells now. We just need to make sure they get out and vote. During the debates, when pipsqueak McCain is standing nect to tall Obama and McCain is stuttering all over the place, Obama will come out ahead. Remember all those house McCain has, that will not sell with middle-class America.
    If I can't be a good example, then let me be a horrible warning.

  13. #13
    Elite Member bychance's Avatar
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    OK, maybe I was panicking a bit But still.

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