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Old March 25th, 2008, 11:32 AM   #1 (permalink)
ingi
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Default Hillary Clinton's long defeat: the audacity of hopelessness

Published: March 25, 2008
Hillary Clinton may not realize it yet, but she’s just endured one of the worst weeks of her campaign.
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David Brooks

First, Barack Obama weathered the Rev. Jeremiah Wright affair without serious damage to his nomination prospects. Obama still holds a tiny lead among Democrats nationally in the Gallup tracking poll, just as he did before this whole affair blew up.
Second, Obama’s lawyers successfully prevented re-votes in Florida and Michigan. That means it would be virtually impossible for Clinton to take a lead in either elected delegates or total primary votes.
Third, as Noam Scheiber of The New Republic has reported, most superdelegates have accepted Nancy Pelosi’s judgment that the winner of the elected delegates should get the nomination. Instead of lining up behind Clinton, they’re drifting away. Her lead among them has shrunk by about 60 in the past month, according to Avi Zenilman of Politico.com.
In short, Hillary Clinton’s presidential prospects continue to dim. The door is closing. Night is coming. The end, however, is not near.
Last week, an important Clinton adviser told Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen (also of Politico) that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting the nomination. Now, she’s probably down to a 5 percent chance.
Five percent.
Let’s take a look at what she’s going to put her party through for the sake of that 5 percent chance: The Democratic Party is probably going to have to endure another three months of daily sniping. For another three months, we’ll have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing Clintonites of McCarthyism. For three months, we’ll have the daily round of résumé padding and sulfurous conference calls. We’ll have campaign aides blurting “blue dress” and only-because-he’s-black references as they let slip their private contempt.
For three more months (maybe more!) the campaign will proceed along in its Verdun-like pattern. There will be a steady rifle fire of character assassination from the underlings, interrupted by the occasional firestorm of artillery when the contest touches upon race, gender or patriotism. The policy debates between the two have been long exhausted, so the only way to get the public really engaged is by poking some raw national wound.
For the sake of that 5 percent, this will be the sourest spring. About a fifth of Clinton and Obama supporters now say they wouldn’t vote for the other candidate in the general election. Meanwhile, on the other side, voters get an unobstructed view of the Republican nominee. John McCain’s approval ratings have soared 11 points. He is now viewed positively by 67 percent of Americans. A month ago, McCain was losing to Obama among independents by double digits in a general election matchup. Now McCain has a lead among this group.
For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance.
When you step back and think about it, she is amazing. She possesses the audacity of hopelessness.
Why does she go on like this? Does Clinton privately believe that Obama is so incompetent that only she can deliver the policies they both support? Is she simply selfish, and willing to put her party through agony for the sake of her slender chance? Are leading Democrats so narcissistic that they would create bitter stagnation even if they were granted one-party rule?
The better answer is that Clinton’s long rear-guard action is the logical extension of her relentlessly political life.
For nearly 20 years, she has been encased in the apparatus of political celebrity. Look at her schedule as first lady and ever since. Think of the thousands of staged events, the tens of thousands of times she has pretended to be delighted to see someone she doesn’t know, the hundreds of thousands times she has recited empty clichés and exhortatory banalities, the millions of photos she has posed for in which she is supposed to appear empathetic or tough, the billions of politically opportune half-truths that have bounced around her head.
No wonder the Clinton campaign feels impersonal. It’s like a machine for the production of politics. It plows ahead from event to event following its own iron logic. The only question is whether Clinton herself can step outside the apparatus long enough to turn it off and withdraw voluntarily or whether she will force the rest of her party to intervene and jam the gears.
If she does the former, she would surprise everybody with a display of self-sacrifice. Her campaign should cruise along at a lower register until North Carolina, then use that as an occasion to withdraw. If she does not, she would soldier on doggedly, taking down as many allies as necessary. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/op...in&oref=slogin

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Old March 25th, 2008, 11:42 AM   #2 (permalink)
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David Brooks is an asshole. I went to school with him. I know his politics.
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Old March 25th, 2008, 12:03 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Wow. Just wow.

I put forth that Obama should drop out of the race now, to prevent further damage to our party and country with his racial divisiveness and his people's politics of whining and victimization at the expense of moving the country forward. He can't achieve the necessary number of delegates to clinch the nomination. Just how much is he willing to inflame the simmering race war just to satisfy his ambition?

Sound ridiculous? I hope so. Because I'm getting so sick of scared people saying Hillary is a villain for staying in when she actually still can win. Would you expect anyone else who has worked as hard, spent as much money, and is in as close a position to get the nom as she to just hand it over?

Get real, and get off of her back. She's been looking and acting far more presidential lately than Obama, anyway.
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Old March 25th, 2008, 12:19 PM   #4 (permalink)
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The Republican Resurrection Skip to next paragraph

Clinton partisans can blame the Obamaphilic press corps for underplaying their candidate’s uncompromising antiwar sentiments. But intentionally or not, the press did Mrs. Clinton a favor. Every time she opens her mouth about Iraq, she reminds voters of how she enabled the catastrophe that has devoured American lives and treasure for five years.
Race has been America’s transcendent issue far longer than that. I share the general view that Mr. Obama’s speech is the most remarkable utterance on the subject by a public figure in modern memory. But what impressed me most was not Mr. Obama’s rhetorical elegance or his nuanced view of both America’s undeniable racial divide and equally undeniable racial progress. The real novelty was to find a politician who didn’t talk down to his audience but instead trusted it to listen to complete, paragraph-long thoughts that couldn’t be reduced to sound bites.
In a political culture where even campaign debates can resemble “Jeopardy,” this is tantamount to revolution. As if to prove the point, some of the Beltway bloviators who had hyped Mitt Romney’s instantly forgotten snake oil on “Faith in America” soon fell to fretting about whether “ordinary Americans” would comprehend Mr. Obama.
Mrs. Clinton is fond of mocking her adversary for offering “just words.” But words can matter, and Mrs. Clinton’s tragedy is that she never realized they could have mattered for her, too. You have to wonder if her Iraq speech would have been greeted with the same shrug if she had tossed away her usual talking points and seized the opportunity to address the war in the same adult way that Mr. Obama addressed race. Mrs. Clinton might have reconnected with the half of her party that has tuned her out.
She is no less bright than Mr. Obama and no less dedicated to public service. It’s not her fault that she doesn’t have his verbal gifts — who does? But her real problem isn’t her speaking style. It’s the content. Mrs. Clinton needn’t have Mr. Obama’s poetry or pearly oratorical tones to deliver a game-changing speech. She just needs the audacity of candor. Yet she seems incapable of revisiting her history on Iraq (or much else) with the directness that Mr. Obama brought to his reappraisal of his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
On Monday she once again pretended her own record didn’t exist while misrepresenting her opponent’s. “I’ve been working day in and day out in the Senate to provide leadership to end this war,” she said, once more implying he’s all words and she’s all action. But Mrs. Clinton didn’t ratchet up her criticisms of the war until she wrote a letter expressing her misgivings to her constituents in late 2005, two and a half years after Shock and Awe. By then, she was not leading but following — not just Mr. Obama, who publicly called for an Iraq exit strategy a week before the release of her letter, but John Murtha, the once-hawkish Pennsylvania congressman who called for a prompt withdrawal a few days earlier still.
What if Mrs. Clinton had come clean Monday, admitting that she had made a mistake in her original vote and highlighting her efforts to make amends since? John Edwards, arguably a more strident proponent of invading Iraq in 2003 than Mrs. Clinton, did exactly that also in the weeks before her 2005 letter. He succeeded in lifting the cloud, even among those on the left of his party.
Instead Mrs. Clinton darkened that cloud by claiming that she was fooled by the prewar intelligence that didn’t dupe nearly half her Democratic Senate colleagues, including Bob Graham, Teddy Kennedy and Carl Levin. Even worse, she repeatedly pretends that she didn’t know President Bush would regard a bill titled “Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002” as an authorization to go to war. No one believes this spin for the simple reason that no one believes Mrs. Clinton is an idiot. Her patently bogus explanations for her vote have in the end done far more damage to her credibility than the vote itself.
That she has never given a forthright speech on Iraq is what can happen when your chief campaign strategist is a pollster. Focus groups no doubt say it would be hara-kiri for her to admit such a failing. But surely many Americans would have applauded her for confessing to mistakes and saying what she learned from them. As her husband could have told her, that’s best done sooner rather than later.
It’s too late now, and so the Democratic stars are rapidly aligning for disaster. Mrs. Clinton is no longer trying to overcome Mr. Obama’s lead in the popular vote and among pledged delegates by making bold statements about Iraq or any other issue. Instead of enhancing her own case for the presidency, she’s going to tear him down. As Adam Nagourney of The New York Times delicately put it last week, she is “looking for some development to shake confidence in Mr. Obama” so that she can win over superdelegates in covert 3 a.m. phone calls. If Mr. Wright doesn’t do it, she’ll seek another weapon. Mr. Obama, who is, after all, a politician and not a deity, could well respond in kind.
For Republicans, the prospect of marathon Democratic trench warfare is an Easter miracle. Saddled with the legacy of both Iraq and a cratering economy, the G.O.P. can only rejoice at its opponents’ talent for self-destruction. The Republicans can also count on the help of a political press that, whatever its supposed tilt toward Mr. Obama, remains most benevolent toward John McCain. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/23/op...23rich.html?hp
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Old March 25th, 2008, 01:26 PM   #5 (permalink)
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^So I guess now Iraq is Hillary's fault? I didn't know she wielded that much power. I seem to remember a Republican president and congress being in control at that time, and also damn near anyone who didn't support the war being characterized as a flag-burning anti-patriot, even by many average people.

And at least Hillary has the courage to actually vote, which means she wasn't afraid to answer for herself or where she stands. This article is more of the same self-interested "blame-game" that we've been seeing for a while now. Blaming people isn't going to improve my life. An apology for something won't either. But I guess it makes for great news.

This is where the repubs begin to get their "free pass" for the damage of the past 8 years. But the fall-out from the democratic fight can't be totally described as a "talent for self-destruction" when the media is largely, if not totally, controlled by conservative interests.

****As for this guy's comment about Obama's speech on race being "the most remarkable utterance on the subject by a public figure in modern memory", I'm reminded of the disengenuous nature with which everyone seems to be handling this matter; it's a chess game loaded with subterfuge. The media fawns, but what does it mean for how he would fix our country's problems? What, if anything, do republicans have to gain by his nomination?

I thought the piece Charles Krauthammer wrote was a great analysis of it. He appears toward the middle of this clip and comments further:

YouTube - Obama - Mr. Unity - Smears Grandma TWICE in 2 days
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Old March 25th, 2008, 01:37 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I don't really blame Hillary for not dropping out yet. She's staying in the race because she still has a slight lead with the superdelegates while Obama has the delegate lead. But if Obama continues to siphon off Hillary's support and he equals, or passes, her in superdelegates, then she has no choice but to drop out. Because, at that point, he'll have the delegate lead and the superdelegate support.
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:39 PM   #7 (permalink)
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From the very interesting Frank Rich:

Quote:
Instead Mrs. Clinton darkened that cloud by claiming that she was fooled by the prewar intelligence that didn’t dupe nearly half her Democratic Senate colleagues, including Bob Graham, Teddy Kennedy and Carl Levin. Even worse, she repeatedly pretends that she didn’t know President Bush would regard a bill titled “Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002” as an authorization to go to war. No one believes this spin for the simple reason that no one believes Mrs. Clinton is an idiot. Her patently bogus explanations for her vote have in the end done far more damage to her credibility than the vote itself.
Has she really said that?
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:41 PM   #8 (permalink)
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People have been telling her to drop out for the "good" of the Democrats since day one. What a load of shit.
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:44 PM   #9 (permalink)
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interesting tactic...Obama supporter that spends the majority of their threads bashing the opposition instead of glorifying their choice.

Spelling corrected, my apologies!
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:48 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Osama? that's a bit republican.
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:49 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Obviously it was a typo. I didn't think it was proper board etiquette to comment on misspellings and typos?
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:49 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Have you seen the rest of this board? It's like a non-stop Obama-whack-a-thon.
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:55 PM   #13 (permalink)
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^^^ Are you serious? All I see is a few people who appear to spend a large part of their day looking up every negative blog or article they can find about Hillary and then posting it here as fact. Lately there have been a few who have responded by posting negative things about Obama.
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:58 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pacific breeze View Post
Obviously it was a typo. I didn't think it was proper board etiquette to comment on misspellings and typos?
Interesting typo considering the S is like 4 keys removed from the B

That's like saying Shillary
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Old March 25th, 2008, 02:59 PM   #15 (permalink)
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^Are you serious?
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