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Thread: Hillary Clinton advisor: About 10% chance of winning

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    Default Hillary Clinton advisor: About 10% chance of winning

    As it happens, many people inside Clinton’s campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.

    In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.
    Story Behind the Story

    Why news gets covered the way it does
    Politico’s top editors draw on their experience at the nation's largest news organizations to pull back the curtain on coverage decisions and the media mindset.
    The real question is why so many people are playing. The answer has more to do with media psychology than with practical politics.

    Journalists, for instance, have become partners with the Clinton campaign in pretending that the contest is closer than it really is. Most coverage breathlessly portrays the race as a down-to-the-wire sprint between two well-matched candidates, one only slightly better situated than the other to win in August at the national convention in Denver.

    One reason is fear of embarrassment. In its zeal to avoid predictive reporting of the sort that embarrassed journalists in New Hampshire, the media — including Politico — have tended to avoid zeroing in on the tough math Clinton faces.

    Avoiding predictions based on polls even before voters cast their ballots is wise policy. But that's not the same as drawing sober and well-grounded conclusions about the current state of a race after millions of voters have registered their preferences.

    The antidote to last winter's flawed predictions is not to promote a misleading narrative based on the desired but unlikely story line of one candidate.

    There are other forces also working to preserve the notion of a contest that is still up for grabs.

    One important, if subliminal, reason is self-interest. Reporters and editors love a close race — it’s more fun and it’s good for business.

    The media are also enamored of the almost mystical ability of the Clintons to work their way out of tight jams, as they have done for 16 years at the national level. That explains why some reporters are inclined to believe the Clinton campaign when it talks about how she’s going to win on the third ballot at the Democratic National Convention in August.
    That’s certainly possible — and, to be clear, we’d love to see the race last that long — but it’s folly to write about this as if it is likely.

    It’s also hard to overstate the role the talented Clinton camp plays in shaping the campaign narrative, first by subtly lowering the bar for the performance necessary to remain in the race, and then by keeping the focus on Obama’s relationships with a political fixer and a controversial pastor in Illinois. But even some of Clinton’s own advisers now concede that she cannot win unless Obama is hit by a political meteor. Something that merely undermines him won't be enough. It would have to be some development that essentially disqualifies him.
    Story behind the story: The Clinton myth - Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen - Politico.com

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    One day last week, I noticed several negative news reports on Obama in one day. My immediate reaction was, "What about Hillary? Why don't they pick on her?" Then it hit me. The media is focusing on Obama because they know he's going to win the nomination. Then I felt better and went about my day.

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    It's all a game of spin now.
    March 20, 2008, 8:54 pm Photograph of Bill Clinton and Rev. Wright Surfaces

    By Kate Phillips

    March 20, 2008
    Photograph of Bill Clinton and Rev. Wright Surfaces - The Caucus - Politics - New York Times Blog

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    OMG! It's a typed letter with Bills signature scrawled along the bottom. I wonder how many people that attended that breakfast or luncheon got about the same typed letter as that racist preacher? I wonder if he would've got that letter if he stood up and showed his true colors and let the Clinton's know exactly how he is.
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    Is it just a coinky dink that he was seated next to Hilly?

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    I bet if he showed is true face he wouldn't have been there sitting right next to her.
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    And just who is this "advisor?" Yep, thought so. If Politico was a legit news organization, this "advisor" would be on the record and using his name. He/she isn't, so I give it about as much credence as I do other unattributed sources, which is NONE.

    It continually amazes how people can quote unnamed sources as factual as though it meant something when in reality it means absolutely nothing. But then I was taught journalism the old-fashioned way, which is to always name sources and corroborate the information at least THREE different ways before printing it. Anonymous sources should be used only in extreme circumstances when the person's life might be in danger, and even then, a lot of editors would rather NOT run the story than use the source. That's called responsible journalism.

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    I guess I don't get the big deal with Bill Clinton shaking Rev. Wright's hand and/or Hillary Clinton sitting beside him one day 10 years ago.

    So what?

    I don't think you can compare a one time meeting with anything like the relationship Sen. Obama had with Rev. Wright - if that's the intention.
    “What are you looking at, sugar-tits?” - Mel Gibson

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