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Thread: Texas/OH 'Junior Tuesday' exit polls 3/4: Hillary Clinton doing better than expected

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    Default Texas/OH 'Junior Tuesday' exit polls 3/4: Hillary Clinton doing better than expected

    Texas exit poll data:

    Texas Exit Polls

    (Primary Exit Polls and Results)
    (March 4th, 2008.)
    12.15 EST Update: I just got an odd report from someone in the Texas Hillary camp. She’s supposedly running better than expected around Dallas, which is surprising as that’s a heavily black area. When I asked what “better than expected” meant, she said 5-7 points higher. Can anyone decipher this? Does this mean that Hillary is only losing the Black vote 85-15 instead of 90-10??? Does that even matter? I’ll wait for more data as this gal has been off once before, but she sounded kind of excited. She also said Hillary is “cleaning up” in West Texas, which begged the question, Is there anything to “clean up” in West Texas?
    12.25 EST Update: Contrary to reports that Republicans are supporting Hillary, I just got another solid report from a Republican organizer (someone in the know) that Republicans in the suburbs south of Houston are making a concerted effort to defeat Hillary now. “We figure we might as well just beat her now so there is no chance she wins in November”. According to Blake, They have organized a somewhat successful Republican get out the vote effort with the battle cry “defeat Hillary today”. He also said that a majority of these voters are McCain supporters. Which makes one wonder what effect, if any, will the crossover vote have on McCain’s margin of victory in Texas. I doubt many of these Republicans will also caucus, they hate Hillary, but not enough to miss dinner to defeat her.
    12.45 EST Update: Rush Limbaugh, who has recently been urging Republicans to vote for Hillary so she can “bloody up” Obama some more, is out sick and not on the air today. A talker out of Dallas is sitting in for him.
    2 EST Update: FIRST WAVE NETWORK EXIT POLLING. These numbers are a good cross-section. You aren’t going to get our head to head numbers yet as we want to be conservative and make sure they are right, but as Rightpundits told you earlier, the crossover (Republicans meddling in the Dems affairs) is huge. Despite heavy heavy turnout, the crossover vote is still making up somewhere between 5%-8% of the Democratic vote. The crossover vote is coming from the older republican crowd. Of course, one can assume Republicans are really liking the “Rockstar” candidate, but you’d be kidding yourself, these are McCain voters in the general. Here’s another tidbit, about 10% of the Dem primary voters have NEVER voted before and a little more than half have never voted in a primary. Be weary of this first wave of polling if it is reported by other sites, in my opinion, something is messed up with the African-American turnout. Either they all slept in or they didn’t show up. I can’t believe either of those and suspect they are somehow undereported. In other words, Obama’s base (black voters) is definitely going to turn out and the numbers aren’t right.
    2.41pm - It really does appear that Hillary is exceeding expectations in the early data. As we always caution, take first waves as they are meant to be, which is a pile of data that has not been properly normalized for known demographics. More in a minute. Texas Exit Polls (Texas Primary Results) Right Pundits

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    Hit By Ban Bus! pacific breeze's Avatar
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    And only yesterday, people were telling her to drop out because she was finished. It ain't over until the fat lady sings.

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    We also thought that John Kerry was president back in 2004 based on Exit polls. Looks like its on to Mississippi next week and PA on April 22!

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    Elite Member sluce's Avatar
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    The Texas primary is very confusing to me. Please tell me if I am correct that you can go to the polls and vote for either party regardless of your registration - so Repubs can vote for Dems and Dems can vote for repubs? Then tonight they also caucus? Which vote counts?

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    Regardless, it sure will be an interesting night. I am actually semi looking forward to seeing how it all pans out. I need a life badly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sluce View Post
    The Texas primary is very confusing to me. Please tell me if I am correct that you can go to the polls and vote for either party regardless of your registration - so Repubs can vote for Dems and Dems can vote for repubs? Then tonight they also caucus? Which vote counts?
    you can vote for either party in a primary, but then you go on voting rolls until the next election as a member of the party who's candidate you voted for.

    Texas uses a dual primary voting booth and caucus system. They both count. More delgates are awarded in the primary than the caucus. To attend a caucus you must have voted in the primary earlier in the day.

    Then, the system awards delegates based on a region's voter turnout history.

    After polls close March 4, interested Republicans and Democrats will return to their voting precincts to begin precinct conventions. Republicans will choose the people they send to the next step, which is the March 29 senatorial district conventions.

    As a result, Democrats who show up at the polls election night for precinct conventions (caucus) will be choosing which delegates move forward to senatorial conventions. But they'll also be choosing which presidential candidate those delegates will be voting for, based on turnout in support for each candidate. When people first show up, they'll sign in, listing their name and presidential preference. If a precinct has 10 delegates and 50 people show up -- with 30 for Clinton and 20 for Barack Obama -- then six delegates for Clinton and four for Obama will move on to the senatorial convention.
    It's no longer a dog whistle, it's a fucking trombone


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    Elite Member sluce's Avatar
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    ^^ So the popular vote once again means nothing? The delegates are determine by who can get to the conventions?

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    Quote Originally Posted by sluce View Post
    ^^ So the popular vote once again means nothing? The delegates are determine by who can get to the conventions?
    no, the primary vote will award the majority of the Texas delegates. a smaller amount will come from the caucus.

    Most people who vote for candidate A in the primary will vote for candidate A in the caucus, so it will reflect the pop. vote

    the delegates are awarded based on the votes given by the people.
    It's no longer a dog whistle, it's a fucking trombone


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    Quote Originally Posted by sluce View Post
    ^^ So the popular vote once again means nothing? The delegates are determine by who can get to the conventions?
    Exactly, none of it counts for a god damned thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sluce View Post
    ^^ So the popular vote once again means nothing? The delegates are determine by who can get to the conventions?
    It sounds like its all on Ohio right now,I'll see if I can find any exit polls there

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    .02 - More on the caucus… remember that ANYONE who voted in the Democrat primary is eligible for the Democrat caucus. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, that means thousands of Republicans attempting to manipulate the election will be eligible if they want to take the time. Something tells me that this time, the Democrats will not want to make sure every vote is counted. The media coverage of this mess is going to give the Texas election system a black eye.
    3.24 EST - The Obama campaign is preparing it’s surrogates to claim the delegate count on a national scale, and why Clinton, even after doing well in Texas and Ohio, still can’t catch Obama in the delegate count, and that Obama is still the delegate leader and has won the vast majority of the last dozen states. They are also going to downplay Ohio and try to build up delegate count in Texas as opposed to popular vote. I don’t know if this is just worst case scenario planning on Obama’s behalf or a tip of the hand at what their internals are showing.
    3.50 EST - Turnout is much higher than any previous primary, but turnout is LOWER than all the pundits were predicting. Most pundits and those in the know thought turnout would exceed 3 million, some even suggesting it would be closer to 3.5 million. Absent a huge surge this evening, the predictions seem to be off. Young African American turnout is 1/3 lower than expected, maybe they’ll show up in the final wave??
    4.15 EST - Rumors a swirling that some Obama supporters are not voting in the primary and instead are going to turnout in force at the caucus tonight at 7:15 since Obama is supposed to “do well” in the caucus. The only problem with that line of thinking is that those who didn’t vote in the Dem. primary can’t caucus. Somebody better get that word out to the Obama ground game!
    4.30 EST - Mood in Obama camp shifting to subdued. They are lowering expectations this afternoon and talking about the next contests like Hillary did in past days. Obama: “We closed the gap, but you know whether it’s going to be enough to actually win is going to depend on turnout. We know there’s not going to be a huge shift in delegates one way or another — just given the math. Which means that either way we will go to Mississippi or Wyoming next week.”

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    Highlights of preliminary results from exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks in Tuesday's presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont:
    ___
    OPEN TO ALL
    The primaries in Ohio, Texas and Vermont were open to all voters, while in Rhode Island registered independents could choose which party's primary to vote in. In the Democratic primaries, independents were about one in five voters in Ohio, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.
    Data for Republican primaries were available only in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio, independents were about one in seven GOP voters, in Texas one in five.
    SUPERDELEGATES
    Roughly six in 10 Democratic voters Tuesday said "superdelegates" _ party leaders and elected officials who get to cast votes at the party nominating convention this summer in Denver _ should vote based on results of the primaries and caucuses rather than for the candidate they think has the best chance to win in November.
    Even among Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's voters, about half said the superdelegates should follow the results of the primaries and caucuses. Sen. Barack Obama's supporters were more likely to say so. Clinton is trailing in pledged delegates and depending on how the remaining primaries go, it's possible her only chance for the nomination is if many superdelegates support her at the Democratic convention.
    FRETTING ABOUT THE ECONOMY
    The economy was big in Ohio Democratic voters' minds _ six in 10 said it's the most important issue facing the country, more than said so in any of the other 25 Democratic primaries with exit polls this year. More than half of Rhode Island Democrats and nearly as many in Texas picked the economy as the top issue out of three choices. In Vermont, almost as many voters picked Iraq as the economy _ the first Democratic contest this year in which Iraq was considered about as important as the economy.
    As in other Democratic primaries this year, few voters Tuesday viewed the nation's economy positively. But Texas Democrats were relatively optimistic, with one in seven saying the economy is in good condition _ as many as have said that in any other state.
    THE TRADE TRADE-OFF
    A whopping eight in 10 in Ohio's Democratic primary said international trade takes more jobs from the state than it creates. That was closer to six in 10 in the other three states voting Tuesday
    WORRIED ABOUT FINANCES
    Asked how worried they were about their family's financial situation over the next year, two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Texas and at least seven in 10 in the other three states said they were very or somewhat worried. Ohio Democrats were most concerned, with four in 10 saying they were very worried.
    HAIL TO THE CHIEF
    One in seven Obama voters acknowledged Clinton as more qualified to be commander in chief; fewer than one in 20 Clinton voters said that about Obama.
    WHO INSPIRES YOU?
    Four in 10 Clinton voters in Ohio and Texas said Obama inspires them about the future of the country. Somewhat fewer Clinton voters in Rhode Island but two-thirds in Vermont gave Obama kudos for being inspirational. Obama voters were much less likely to call Clinton inspirational _ about a quarter of them said that across the four states.
    ___
    Results from partial statewide samples of voters in 40 precincts each in Ohio and Texas and 20 each in Rhode Island and Vermont as well as a telephone survey of early voters in Texas. Fieldwork by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. Sample sizes ranged from 364 voters in the Rhode Island Democratic primary to 1,453 in the Texas Democratic contest. Townhall.com::The News

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    First Wave of Fox Democratic Exit Polls for Ohio, Texas

    Best to beat the GOP:
    Ohio — Obama 52, Clinton 44
    Texas — Obama 52, Clinton 41
    Offers clear and detailed plans:
    Ohio — Clinton 67, Obama 57
    Texas — Clinton 66, Obama 52
    Inspires you about the future?
    Ohio — Obama 67, Clinton 57
    Texas — Obama 64, Clinton 57
    More than half say they would be dissatisfied if their candidate does not win the nomination. The Page - by Mark Halperin - TIME

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    First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont

    This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or different times of day. For the first set (morning?), Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
    The second set (afternoon?) is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and Obama up by a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
    You'll hear more as I learn more. The Campaign Spot on National Review Online=

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    EXIT POLLS: DEADLOCK IN TX, OH, RI

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