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Thread: Hillary Clinton gets last-minute hope

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    Elite Member kingcap72's Avatar
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    Default Hillary Clinton gets last-minute hope

    Hillary gets last-minute hope
    associated press/Politico.com
    With her political future on the line in today's primaries in Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton is getting some last-minute hope.
    After winning 11 presidential nominating contests in a row, the campaign of Barack Obama has hit turbulence, as key political indicators show a possible momentum change in the race.
    Obama's campaign still portrays outward confidence about winning today, and says it's nearly impossible for Clinton to catch him in the delegate count. But Obama has not cemented a lead in polls in either of the biggest "Super Tuesday II" states, breaking his recent pattern of racing ahead of Clinton as a state's primary approached.
    Internet rumors and maneuvering by the Clinton campaign on issues like trade and ethics have put Obama into a defensive stance -- just as Buckeye and Lone Star state voters are making their final decisions.
    During a "60 Minutes" interview with Obama, correspondent Steve Kroft said voters in southern Ohio were talking about the untrue rumor "that you're a Muslim."
    "You know, this has been a systematic e-mail smear campaign that's been going on since actually very early in this campaign," Obama said. "I have never been a Muslim, am not a Muslim.... It plays into, obviously, a certain fear-mongering there."
    Lingering rumors, political positioning or just second-thoughts could be swaying momentum from Obama to Clinton.
    "In the last days, polls seem to be breaking toward Senator Clinton," said John McIntyre, president and co-founder of Real Clear Politics, a Web site that tracks polls and political news. "The lead in Ohio seems to be an expanding lead. In Texas, where five or six days ago Sen. Obama had a lead, she is now ahead in our average."
    The Real Clear Politics average of Ohio polls has Clinton ahead of Obama by 6 points on the eve of the primary. In Texas, the two were tied, with Clinton ahead by 0.3 percent.
    If the polls prove to be accurate, the change couldn't come at a more crucial time for Clinton. Democratic strategists say that if she doesn't win both the Ohio and Texas primaries, her chances of getting the party's nomination are close to zero.
    Top party officials say that if Clinton loses both big contests, she should quit the race gracefully and quickly -- and believe she will.
    "If she wins both, they continue on," said Jennifer Palmieri, a Democratic strategist at the Center for America Progress, a liberal think tank. "If he wins both, they're probably done. The messy scenario will be if there's a split decision. I don't think she's going to win Ohio and wake up Wednesday morning and say, 'I'm dropping out.'"
    But it may be too soon to talk dropping out just yet. Indicators beyond poll data show a neck-and-neck race, with signs pointing in slightly different directions, depending on the information.
    On the Yahoo! News Political Dashboard, the Yahoo! Buzz Index -- which measures search activity -- is roughly three times as high for Obama as for Clinton.
    Obama's buzz started in roughly the same place at the beginning of the year, with him slightly ahead of Clinton. After a few peaks and drops, his index soared. Clinton's buzz increased slightly until Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, then flattened.
    But much of Obama's traffic is about topics he'd rather avoid. Yahoo! analyst Vera H-C Chan says people in Ohio and Texas are still scouting out rumors about Obama, as reflected in queries like "barack obama muslim," "obama's church," "obama antichrist," "barack obama muslim school," and the straightforward question, "is obama a christian or a muslim?"
    Clinton's searches, on the other hand, have focused on her "biography" and "campaign," with some searches for her husband Bill and daughter Chelsea, both of whom have campaigned nearly non-stop in recent weeks.
    Intrade, a Web-based predictions market that includes political trading, had been showing a strong trend toward Obama. But John Delaney, Intrade's founder and chief executive, said he's seen "a bounce back for Clinton."
    "He's favored but not guaranteed in Texas, but the momentum is clearly with him as is the longer trend," Delaney said. In Ohio, "the trading has been even up until today -- now Clinton has moved forward."
    The two campaigns agree Clinton has a better chance in Ohio, where the rusty economy has produced a rich harvest of the lower income, blue-collar voters who have been her strength.
    In Texas, she expects to do well with Hispanics and in the rural areas in the south. Obama aims to clean up with African-Americans and big-city voters.
    Clinton's campaign hopes voters, like the late-deciding women who gave her an upset victory in the New Hampshire primary, will decide the race shouldn't be over yet.
    Vermont and Rhode Island also vote today, but are so much smaller that they haven't received a lot of attention. Obama is expected to win a landslide in Vermont, which one Democratic operative calls "the capital of latte liberals" -- the highly educated, high-income Democrats who have flocked to his anti-Washington platform. Rhode Island should be strong for Clinton, although some polls have been tighter than she would have liked.
    In the final frenetic days of campaigning, each camp pushed their platforms. Clinton's message has been: Democrats, if you're going to have buyer's remorse, have it now. Don't wait till the fall when we're running against John McCain.
    David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, declared confidently in a memo to reporters and supporters: "While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning. ... No amount of spin can change the math." By tomorrow morning, we'll know who was bluffing.

    I don't see either Obama or Hillary getting a clean sweep today. Obama will probably win Texas and Vermont, while Hillary will probably take Ohio and Rhode Island. But like Bill Clinton said, Hillary needs to win both Texas and Ohio to still have a fighting chance.

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    TX: Obama leads early voting by 8%

    by mecarr, Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 10:54:17 PM EST
    According to the latest WFFABELO tracking poll, Hillary has a statistically insiginificant 1% lead. However, among those who have already voted, Obama is leading by 8%. This will be crucial to his win tomorrow night.
    http://www.wfaa.com/s/dws/img/standing/w faa/poll/data/0303/summary0303.pdf

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    Elite Member nycgirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingcap72 View Post
    I don't see either Obama or Hillary getting a clean sweep today. Obama will probably win Texas and Vermont, while Hillary will probably take Ohio and Rhode Island. But like Bill Clinton said, Hillary needs to win both Texas and Ohio to still have a fighting chance.
    I agree. If this is the case (and HC loses Texas by a small margin) do you think she will stay in the race? (This question is not directed at anybody in particular, it's just in general)

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    Quote Originally Posted by nycgirly101 View Post
    I agree. If this is the case (and HC loses Texas by a small margin) do you think she will stay in the race? (This question is not directed at anybody in particular, it's just in general)
    I think if she loses Texas by a small margin, and wins Ohio by a decent margin, she'll stay in.

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    Elite Member McJag's Avatar
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    This is what my theory is: A lot of middle aged Texas women are going to vote for Hillary. They will not tell anyone-certainly not their husbands. Not even best friends. And get this-I believe they wil be all colors. From what I can figure, this is a very quiet thing.We'll soon see.
    I didn't start out to collect diamonds, but somehow they just kept piling up.-Mae West

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    Elite Member nycgirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingcap72 View Post
    I think if she loses Texas by a small margin, and wins Ohio by a decent margin, she'll stay in.
    I agree with that also, and I think that's what might happen.

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    Elite Member greysfang's Avatar
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    Lord, please let this race be decided today. If it isn't then the Convention in Denver (which is two blocks from my office) will be 100x the zoo than expected and I will have a shiteous week in August.
    FUCK YOU AND GIVE ME MY GODDAMN VENTI TWO PUMP LIGHT WHIP MOCHA YOU COCKSUCKING WHORE BEFORE I PUNCH YOU IN THE MOUTH. I just get unpleasant in my car. - Deej

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    I don't think it's last minute hope.

    I think that whats happening today is what was going to happen all along. It has happened in so many elections of past years.

    As we have seen the polls have been wrong over and over again about the primaries this season.

    The media has been pressuring Clinton to drop out, and they were wrong to do so. As I have said in other posts Bill Clinton didn't wrap up his nom in 1992 until June. Carter was late in the election too, like right to the convention.

    This primary election needs to play out in full, and then the Dems will have a clearer overall picture of who should win the nom.

    EDT: i chopped up a sentence
    Last edited by witchcurlgirl; March 4th, 2008 at 03:51 PM. Reason: typing mistake
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    Elite Member sluce's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by greysfang View Post
    Lord, please let this race be decided today. If it isn't then the Convention in Denver (which is two blocks from my office) will be 100x the zoo than expected and I will have a shiteous week in August.
    Sounds like your company needs to let you all work from home that week!!!

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    Hit By Ban Bus! pacific breeze's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by witchcurlgirl View Post
    I don't think it's last minute hope.

    I think that whats happening today is what was going to happen all along. It has happened in so many elections of past years.

    As we have seen the polls have been wrong over and over again about the primaries this season.

    The media has been pressuring Clinton to drop out, and they were wrong to do so. As I have said in other posts Bill Clinton and Carter didn't wrap up his nom in 1992 until June.

    This primary election needs to play out in full, and then the Dems will have a clearer overall picture of who should win the nom.
    Exactly. This pressure on her to step down is ludicrous. I seriously doubt that would be expected of a man, but who knows? Not much makes sense any more in politics that are so polarized even within the same party.

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    Elite Member sluce's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by witchcurlgirl View Post

    The media has been pressuring Clinton to drop out, and they were wrong to do so. As I have said in other posts Bill Clinton didn't wrap up his nom in 1992 until June. Carter was late in the election too, like right to the convention.

    This primary election needs to play out in full, and then the Dems will have a clearer overall picture of who should win the nom.

    EDT: i chopped up a sentence

    Keep in mind the primary elections were held much later for Bill Clinton and Carter.

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    Elite Member nycgirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacific breeze View Post
    Exactly. This pressure on her to step down is ludicrous. I seriously doubt that would be expected of a man, but who knows? Not much makes sense any more in politics that are so polarized even within the same party.
    Well I don't see anyone pressuring Huckabee, and he has no chance in hell of getting the nom. It's wrong of the media to pressure Clinton to drop out already when she's so close to Obama to begin with.

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    Elite Member greysfang's Avatar
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    Huckabee has been receiving mucho pressure to drop out, how can youhave missed that?
    FUCK YOU AND GIVE ME MY GODDAMN VENTI TWO PUMP LIGHT WHIP MOCHA YOU COCKSUCKING WHORE BEFORE I PUNCH YOU IN THE MOUTH. I just get unpleasant in my car. - Deej

    http://www.gossiprocks.com/forum/signaturepics/sigpic4098_9.gif Healthy is merely the slowest possible rate at which one can die.

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    Elite Member nycgirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by greysfang View Post
    Huckabee has been receiving mucho pressure to drop out, how can youhave missed that?
    I don't hear anyone hounding and slamming him on a daily basis like they do Hillary, and I guess I must have missed the intense media scrutiny and daily pressure on him to drop out (like HC has gotten). The bottom line is she's still in the game and isn't going to give up without a long fight, so the media should get off her shit already. Let her stay in if she wants to, if Obama makes a strong enough case for himself it shouldn't be a problem. Unless he reaches over 2000 delegates, which he won't, she can stay in.

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