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Thread: $7 gas, 10 million fewer cars in 2012

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    Elite Member Mr. Authority's Avatar
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    Default $7 gas, 10 million fewer cars in 2012

    $7-a-gallon gas, 10-million fewer cars: Rubin

    A new forecast calls for gasoline prices to hit $7 (U.S.) a gallon in the next two years and oil to soar to $200 a barrel by 2010.

    The report by CIBC World Markets also predicts there will be 10 million fewer cars on the road in the United States by 2012.

    “Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America's highways in history,” Jeffrey Rubin, the lead author, wrote in Thursday's report.

    Economist Benjamin Tal, who co-authored the report with Mr. Rubin, said Canadians can expect to pay about $1.85 to $2.00 per litre of gas at the pumps by 2010.
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    The Globe and Mail

    Mr. Tal also expects the numbers of Canadian vehicles on the road to drop by 700,000 by 2012 – much less than the 10 million predicted in the U.S.

    “We don't have the same story in the sense that most low income Canadians have better access to public transportation,” he said, referring to the report's U.S. calculations that estimates that about half the cars coming off the road will be from Americans who make less than $25,000.

    In Canada, the decrease will be mainly come from middle-class families that own two or three cars, Mr. Tal said.

    By 2012, the report predicts, the average miles driven in the United States will decrease by 15 per cent, and sports utility vehicles, which accounted for almost 60 per cent of U.S. market share in 2006, will drop to less than half that level. Overall vehicle sales will drop from 14 million to 11 million by 2012 – the lowest level since the early 1980s.

    “While some of the current weakness in vehicle sales can be attributed to the economic slowdown, we estimate that highest gasoline prices have had almost twice the effect,” Mr. Rubin and Mr. Tal wrote.

    Basic laws of supply and demand are “no longer operative” in the crude oil market, the report says, compelling CIBC economists to raise their target for West Texas Intermediate by $20 a barrel, to $150 next year, and by $50 a barrel by 2010, for $200.

    “Higher oil prices spell stagflation for the U.S. economy next year, and we have marked down our GDP growth to barely over 1 per cent for 2009,” Mr. Rubin wrote.

    The report also predicts that by late next year, gasoline sales in the United States, growing at a rate five times that of the rest of retail sales, will overtake grocery store spending as the largest item in households' non-vehicle retail spending.

    All of this means a “quantum” shift in driving habits, the report says. Americans will drive less in smaller vehicles, perhaps mimicking countries in Europe where fewer people drive their cars to work than in the United States.

    (In the United Kingdom, the report says, 60 per cent of people use cars to get to work compared to the more than 90 per cent of Americans.)

    “Of course the flip side to this equation is public transit,” wrote Mr. Rubin and Mr. Tal. American “obsession with the car is mirrored in its avoidance of public transit.

    “When it comes to taking the train, bus or subway, the U.S. ranks the lowest among OECD countries, just as it ranks the highest among the same group when it comes to the use of the car,” the economists wrote.

    Earlier Thursday, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries president Chakib Khelil said in an interview that crude could rise as high as $170 a barrel this summer.

    “I forecast prices probably between $150-170 during this summer. That will perhaps ease towards the end of the year,” he told France 24 television, according to a text of the interview released by the station.

    The comments came as crude prices neared $135 per barrel, after rising about 40 per cent this year.

    Mr. Khelil said he doubted prices would climb as high as $200.

    “I think that the devaluation of the dollar against the euro, if everything goes as I think it will, will be of the order of perhaps 1-2 per cent and this will probably generate an $8 rise in the price of oil,” he said.

    Mr. Khelil said it had been clearly established that speculation was affecting markets.

    “It's not a question, but a certainty. The problem is the extent of that speculation on the market,” he said, adding that the effect of the subprime crisis in the United States had affected oil markets.
    reportonbusiness.com: $7-a-gallon gas, 10-million fewer cars: Rubin

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    Elite Member Sojiita's Avatar
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    I do not think it will go that high, and they are not factoring in the (increasing) inpact of renewable fuel sources. I think they are on the right track, but are overstating things somewhat.

    *And I paid $3.76 a gallon yesterday..and felt almost lucky.


    oh ..and..

    COAL COAL COAL !!!! Acid rain, schmacid rain..

    DRILL DRILL DRILL !!!! screw the caribou!

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    interesting article, things are to change a lot

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    Elite Member suede's Avatar
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    The roads were empty today, we did a day of shopping and the stores were empty as well.

    Unless everyone ran to beach today - no one's driving or shopping.
    He who knows does not speak.
    He who speaks does not know.
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    Elite Member Beeyotch's Avatar
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    Things are getting very depressing. My little 2-door Honda Accord cost $70 to fill up last time. This shit has got to stop.

    And nobody or nothing I've read has adequately explained exactly why the fuck gas prices are so high. Is there an actual shortage of oil or refineries? Is OPEC just sticking it to everyone because they feel like it and because they can? Fuck them, we need to figure out alternative fuel sources so their monopoly can end.

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    Elite Member MrsMarsters's Avatar
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    You paid 3.76? It's almost 5.00 here! Damn you are lucky! It's sad the other day I was thinking about how I'd be happy if gas went to $4.00 again!

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    A*O
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    I heard a conspiracy theorist the other day saying that fuel prices are being hiked to force people to stop using their cars for everything and thus save a few whales. Asking people to be less wasteful and be more carbon friendly just doesn't work. Reducing global warming is always the other guy's job.

    Not sure I believe it's eco-social engineering, but I guess if it makes us take one big trip to the supermarket once a week to buy a cart full of groceries instead of going every day to grab a small basketfull it's probably not a bad thing?
    If all the women in this place were laid end to end, I wouldn’t be surprised - Dorothy Parker

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    Elite Member Sojiita's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrsMarsters View Post
    You paid 3.76? It's almost 5.00 here! Damn you are lucky! It's sad the other day I was thinking about how I'd be happy if gas went to $4.00 again!
    It may be because I live very near a large gas supply center. But yeah it was that amount.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beeyotch View Post
    Things are getting very depressing. My little 2-door Honda Accord cost $70 to fill up last time. This shit has got to stop.
    And nobody or nothing I've read has adequately explained exactly why the fuck gas prices are so high. Is there an actual shortage of oil or refineries? Is OPEC just sticking it to everyone because they feel like it and because they can? Fuck them, we need to figure out alternative fuel sources so their monopoly can end.
    Well thanks to the
    $3.76 mine was less than 60 bucks to fill my Honda Accord.

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    Quote Originally Posted by A*O View Post
    I heard a conspiracy theorist the other day saying that fuel prices are being hiked to force people to stop using their cars for everything and thus save a few whales. Asking people to be less wasteful and be more carbon friendly just doesn't work. Reducing global warming is always the other guy's job.

    Not sure I believe it's eco-social engineering, but I guess if it makes us take one big trip to the supermarket once a week to buy a cart full of groceries instead of going every day to grab a small basketfull it's probably not a bad thing?
    I'd love to do that, but my fridge and pantry are both on the small side. I don't have one of those gi-normous side-by-side American fridges. Mine's one of the smallest "full size" ones they sell. It's bigger than Euro fridges, but it's still pretty freaking small!

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    A*O
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    I sometimes wonder how our mothers and especially our grandmothers managed without proper fridges, let alone freezers. My granny had one of those old fashioned walk-in larders with a marble slab for keeping things like milk fresh and cool. There was a small ice chest and a so-called meat safe but that was it. The larder had a tiny window so it was always dark in there and was on the north side of the house so it never got direct heat from the sun and remained cool all the year round. I guess people planned those old houses better. She also didn't have central heating, just a coal Aga in the kitchen and another open fire in the living room so the house was never hot although I don't remember it being particularly cold, even in the frost and snow of a Yorkshire winter. She never owned or used a freezer in her life and she didn't drive because she didn't know how so shopping trips for her were once a week on the bus or getting a lift from a friend or neighbour who happened to be going into town. I don't know how she did it but there was always delicious home cooked food on the table and we certainly didn't go hungry or feel deprived in any way. Maybe things have come full circle and more people will start living that way again now.
    If all the women in this place were laid end to end, I wouldn’t be surprised - Dorothy Parker

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    Elite Member darksithbunny's Avatar
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    I don't care if gas gets to be $10 a gallon, Americans love their cars too much and will cut back on other things. Plus the US is too vast and we don't have public trans in too many places for people not to drive.

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    I've cut costs myself due to gas prices. I moved closer to work, and had to transfer schools. I couldn't afford the daily commute to work and to school.

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    ^^ I was dabbling with the idea of telecommuting. Now it's a definite.

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    Quote Originally Posted by A*O View Post
    I sometimes wonder how our mothers and especially our grandmothers managed without proper fridges, let alone freezers. My granny had one of those old fashioned walk-in larders with a marble slab for keeping things like milk fresh and cool. There was a small ice chest and a so-called meat safe but that was it. The larder had a tiny window so it was always dark in there and was on the north side of the house so it never got direct heat from the sun and remained cool all the year round. I guess people planned those old houses better. She also didn't have central heating, just a coal Aga in the kitchen and another open fire in the living room so the house was never hot although I don't remember it being particularly cold, even in the frost and snow of a Yorkshire winter. She never owned or used a freezer in her life and she didn't drive because she didn't know how so shopping trips for her were once a week on the bus or getting a lift from a friend or neighbour who happened to be going into town. I don't know how she did it but there was always delicious home cooked food on the table and we certainly didn't go hungry or feel deprived in any way. Maybe things have come full circle and more people will start living that way again now.
    People back then also had more food poisoning and higher parasite loads.

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    A*O
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    Well grandma never poisoned any of her many grandchildren although I'm sure she was sorely tempted. Can't say I noticed any tapeworms either but maybe we just got lucky.
    If all the women in this place were laid end to end, I wouldn’t be surprised - Dorothy Parker

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