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Thread: New York Times: CDC predicts up to 1.4 million cases of Ebola

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    Elite Member Kathie_Moffett's Avatar
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    Default New York Times: CDC predicts up to 1.4 million cases of Ebola

    Oh, shit. Basically.


    ******************************************

    From the New York Times:

    CDC predicts up to 1.4 million cases of Ebola - SFGate



    Members of a Red Cross team remove the body of a woman who was believed to have died of Ebola from a home in Monrovia, Liberia, on Thursday. Photo: DANIEL BEREHULAK, STR / New York Times



    A resident sick from the ebola virus waits on September 23, 2014 outside "Island Clinic", a new Ebola treatment centre that opened in Monrovia. The first members of a team of 165 Cuban doctors and health workers have arrived in Sierra Leone to help the fight against Ebola, a health official said Tuesday. Photo: ZOOM DOSSO, Stringer / AFP/Getty Images

    Yet another set of ominous projections about the Ebola epidemic in West Africa was released Tuesday, in a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that gave worst- and best-case estimates for Liberia and Sierra Leone based on computer modeling.

    In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps spreading, without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.

    The report does not include figures for Guinea because case counts there have gone up and down in ways that cannot be reliably modeled.

    In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said. It showed the proportion of patients now in such settings as about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.

    “My gut feeling is, the actions we’re taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass,” said Dr. Thomas Frieden, the CDC director. “But it’s important to understand that it could happen.”
    The figures in the CDC report are based on data from August, but Frieden said the situation appeared to have improved since then because more aid had begun to reach the region.

    The current official case count is 5,843, including 2,803 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

    The WHO published its own revised estimates of the outbreak Monday, predicting more than 20,000 cases by Nov. 2 if control does not improve. That figure is more conservative than the one from the CDC, but the WHO report noted that many cases were unreported and said that without effective help, the three most affected countries would soon be reporting thousands of cases and deaths per week. It said its projections were similar to those from the CDC.

    The WHO report also, for the first time, raised the possibility that the disease would not be stopped but would become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could become a constant presence there. The report from the CDC did not discuss that possibility, but it is something that health officials have feared all along, and the reason they say help is needed so quickly.
    Last edited by Kathie_Moffett; September 24th, 2014 at 03:01 AM. Reason: formatting gremlins
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    Elite Member JazzyGirl's Avatar
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    I always wondered if there could be a non-symptomatic carrier, that could unwittingly spread the disease by traveling.

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    Elite Member Annika's Avatar
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    better hope it doesn't go airborne, like a cold.

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    Not the end of days virus the media makes it out to be, Nigeria accidentally let an infected Liberian man into the country, caught it on time though, 21 were infected and 7 died the rest survived with sufficient medical care, now the country is free of the virus. I don't know why Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone let it get out of control. My point is if the virus does make it to North America, it would be squashed like a tiny bug, no problem

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    Elite Member Kathie_Moffett's Avatar
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    Yeah, that's what worries me. I mean, remember 1918? It can happen.

    I seem to recall first reading about the Ebola virus in Robin Cook's "Outbreak" and then also Richard Preston's prescient "The Hot Zone"--back in the 90s. As those authors discussed, it still appears that a couple of varieties of fruit bats are the main animal reservoirs of the disease. Apparently bat soup is a delicacy in that part of the world. Cooks handle the raw infectious meet and whoops, Ebola. Preston had this horror story about going with some researchers into a cave in some remote part of Africa--it was FULL of bats, bad enough lol, but he already knew that at least some of them were carrying Ebola. Infectious nightmare scenario. Never forgot that.

    He did a Reddit AMA recently that was quite informative.
    Did you know that every time a parent gives in to their kid's whines and buys them candy at the checkout lane, a kitten gets diabetes?-Dlisted
    I dislike groups of people, but I love individuals. Every person you look at, you can see the universe in their eyes, if you're really looking.
    -George Carlin

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    It's so messed up that this is what passes for a medical clinic in so much of the world. We can do better than this, and it shouldn't take an ebola scare to remind us.

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    Elite Member Mel1973's Avatar
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    Well, it's made it to Texas.
    Kill him.
    Kill her.
    Kill It.
    Kill everything... that IS the solution!
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    Elite Member MohandasKGanja's Avatar
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    Let's hope it's not one of the many things that are bigger in Texas.
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    Oh no...
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    Elite Member KrisNine's Avatar
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    I'm not a totally ignorant rube, but I have to say ebola is some scary shit. I'm also not a conspiracy person, but it seems to me that either we aren't getting the whole story or the CDC and others aren't fully aware of exactly how ebola spreads from person to person. I keep hearing direct contact with bodily fluids, but the story about the five people that shared a cab in Liberia (I think) makes me a little worried. This latest case in Texas with worrying about people that are on planes or people that may have been in the ambulance in the two days that passed before they realized an ebola patient was transported, worrying about the people that were in the er on the day this guy was turned away, etc. Seriously, how dumb were the people in the ER? When they heard a man with these symptoms, who had just traveled here from Liberia was present in their ER, they released him.
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    Elite Member MohandasKGanja's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KrisNine View Post
    I'm not a totally ignorant rube, but I have to say ebola is some scary shit. I'm also not a conspiracy person, but it seems to me that either we aren't getting the whole story or the CDC and others aren't fully aware of exactly how ebola spreads from person to person. I keep hearing direct contact with bodily fluids, but the story about the five people that shared a cab in Liberia (I think) makes me a little worried. This latest case in Texas with worrying about people that are on planes or people that may have been in the ambulance in the two days that passed before they realized an ebola patient was transported, worrying about the people that were in the er on the day this guy was turned away, etc. Seriously, how dumb were the people in the ER? When they heard a man with these symptoms, who had just traveled here from Liberia was present in their ER, they released him.
    I thought the same thing - infuriated that they sent this guy back. But they might not have known he was from Liberia. There are something like three strains of Ebola going around from what I've read. Ebola Zaire has the highest fatality rate (70%, I think?). The others have lower mortality rates but are still really bad.

    I think the only airborne version of Ebola was Ebola Reston, which was only deadly to monkeys. That being said, you never know when or how a virus can mutate.
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    Elite Member KrisNine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MohandasKGanja View Post
    I thought the same thing - infuriated that they sent this guy back. But they might not have known he was from Liberia. There are something like three strains of Ebola going around from what I've read. Ebola Zaire has the highest fatality rate (70%, I think?). The others have lower mortality rates but are still really bad.

    I think the only airborne version of Ebola was Ebola Reston, which was only deadly to monkeys. That being said, you never know when or how a virus can mutate.
    Yeah, I just finished reading on CNN that the hospital didn't ask and the guy didn't disclose that he had just traveled from Liberia. So, I guess there's that. Damn, you would think that someone in his family would have told the hospital "hey, this is my relative who just traveled from Africa". I guess it was only a matter of time before it got here. Scary.
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    Calm down people, Ebola is scary only if it is properly managed. Liberia, S. Leone and Guinea screwed up majorly. Like I said earlier, the virus made it to Nigeria (thanks to a Liberian diplomat), it was caught on time and the death toll was only 7 nigerian citizens. I should know, I was in Lagos at the time. U.S. can handle this, they probably even have a vaccine for it already

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    Elite Member Kathie_Moffett's Avatar
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    I'm not scared--yet--but Ebola freaks me out a bit, always has. This is sort of a personal thing as I'm a serious virus-phobe--I fucking hate them.

    However, I feel this is an entirely reasonable position.

    I just saw a bulletin that there's a patient in hospital isolation and being tested in Hawaii. And NBC news is saying that the Texas patient, Duncan, was vomiting all over the place as he was put into the ambulance. Five children who may have been exposed are now under observation, along with the paramedics and ER staff (and I assume, his family members!)

    Meanwhile, Duncan's nephew claims he had to actually call the CDC himself to get things moving.

    Ebola Patient Th omas Eric Duncan's Nephew: I Had to Call CDC - NBC News

    DALLAS — Two days after he was sent home from a Dallas hospital, the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S. was seen vomiting on the ground outside an apartment complex as he was bundled into an ambulance. "His whole family was screaming. He got outside and he was throwing up all over the place," resident Mesud Osmanovic, 21, said on Wednesday, describing the chaotic scene before Thomas Eric Duncan was admitted to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital on Sunday. Duncan, 42, is in serious condition. Osmanovic said he met the man three times over the years when he was visiting his family. His account could not be independently confirmed by NBC News.

    Ebola spreads through contact with bodily fluids such as blood or saliva, which health experts say limits its potential to infect others, unlike airborne diseases. While past outbreaks of Ebola killed as many as 90 percent of victims, the current epidemic's fatality rate has averaged about 50 percent in West Africa.

    ***

    The first person diagnosed with the Ebola virus in the U.S. wasn't appropriately treated for suspected infection until after a relative personally called the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, his nephew told NBC News on Wednesday night.

    Health officials have acknowledged that Thomas Eric Duncan, 42, was initially sent home from Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas when he showed up on Sept. 26 complaining of fever and abdominal pain. He had to return two days later in an ambulance.

    That was the day "I called CDC to get some actions taken, because I was concerned for his life and he wasn't getting the appropriate care," Duncan's nephew, Josephus Weeks, told NBC News on Wednesday night. "I feared other people might also get infected if he wasn't taken care of, and so I called them to ask them why is it a patient that might be suspected of this disease was not getting appropriate care?"
    Weeks added that he hoped "nobody else got infected because of a mistake that was made."

    via Facebook
    Thomas Eric Duncan, the first patient to be diagnosed with Ebola outside of Africa during the ongoing epidemic, is being treated at a Dallas hospital. Weeks said the CDC referred him to the Texas Department of Health and Human Services, which spoke to him and then took appropriate action. "I called the CDC and they instructed me of the process, and that got the ball rolling," Weeks said.

    A CDC spokesman told NBC News the agency could neither confirm nor deny Weeks' account. The hospital did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Duncan, a Liberian national, may have contracted the virus in Liberia while taking a deathly ill neighbor to the hospital four days before he flew to Dallas to visit family members, The New York Times reported.
    "I'm not angry," Weeks said. "It's more frustration and concern. ... I'm hoping that he can get the same kind of treatment that was given to the four other patients that survived, and that's my concern, and that's why I'm still asking about it."

    As for Duncan, who was reported to be stable in serious condition, "he's still in pain," Weeks said. "He's doing all right. He's a fighter. I think our prayers, all together, will help him pull through."
    Did you know that every time a parent gives in to their kid's whines and buys them candy at the checkout lane, a kitten gets diabetes?-Dlisted
    I dislike groups of people, but I love individuals. Every person you look at, you can see the universe in their eyes, if you're really looking.
    -George Carlin

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    That is a pretty big fuck-up. Apparently at least one of the clinicians in the ER who saw him asked him about recent travel per the CDC recommendations and he disclosed that he had traveled from Liberia, and somehow this information did not get passed along.

    I know that back when SARS was a big concern, there was an excess of caution with anyone who went to the ER who had traveled to an area where they might have been exposed. I had a friend with a cold who was quarantined, in fact. How did this patient's chart not get flagged right away? How did whoever interviewed him about not travel NOT run out of the room and say, hey guys we have a possible case of exposure to Ebola here??? I heard on NPR this morning that this hospital had had a meeting about Ebola preparedness the prior week! It's un-fucking-believable.
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