Rock Stars Aren’t More Likely To Drop Dead At 27

[witchcurlgirl]

If you're a 27-year-old musician, feel free to continue indulging in the risky behaviors you love so much because scientists have found the year isn't much more dangerous than any other in the life of a young celebrity. Shockingly, there isn't some magical curse placed on the head of anyone who's risen to fame by stepping in front of a microphone.

The facts on the "Forever 27 Club" seem hard to deny. That's the age that many stars have passed away, including Kurt Cobain, Brian Jones, Jim Morrison, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Amy Winehouse, and a bunch of musicians you've probably never heard of. As Charles R. Cross, author of biographies on Hendrix and Cobain, once wrote, "The number of musicians who passed away at 27 is truly remarkable by any standard ... Though humans die regularly at all ages, there is a statistical spike for musicians who die at 27." Though, it turns out that that six famous rock stars dying at the same age during a 50 year period isn't actually all that remarkable when you look at the facts.


Recently researchers from the Queensland University of Technology in Australia took a look at musicians deaths between 1956 and 2007, and concluded that there wasn't anything particularly dangerous about turning 27. After analyzing statistics on 1,046 musicians who had number one hits in the U.K. (which actually excluded Hendrix, Joplin, and Morrison), the researchers found that only 7% had died during that period. There were quite a few deaths between 20 and 40, but researchers determined the rockers weren't more likely to die young due to some evil sorcery. It seems the spike in early deaths can be attributed to a strange condition called "doing a fuckton of drugs."


The "27 Club" myth exists due to the human brain's tendency to look for patterns and ignore things that don't fit. Saying 27 has significance is like arguing that Aaliyah, Buddy Holly, and George Harrison all died before the average non-famous person because they had double letters in their names. (Whoa, spooky!)




Rock Stars Aren't More Likely To Drop Dead At 27

[MohandasKGanja]

There were quite a few deaths between 20 and 40, but researchers determined the rockers weren't more likely to die young due to some evil sorcery.

Okay, but even assuming that 100% of the 1.046 analyzed rockers died between the ages of 20 and 40, that would leave 20 time intervals (specific ages) to mark a rocker's death. Divide 100% by 20 and you get an average of 5% chance of a rocker dying on any given year. So, the 7% cohort would be a slight bump, and not even a statistical outlier, on that timeline.

However, knowing that the actual timeline of death is really anywhere between 20 and 80, you really have about 60 time intervals (specific ages) to mark a rocker's death. Divide 100% by 60 and you get a likelihood of 1.6% of a chance of a rocker dying on any given year. When comparing that stat with the 7% stat at 27, it becomes a much more prominent statistical outlier, and it would seem that a rock and roller is 4.3 times as likely to die at 27 than at any other age.

Graphs coming momentarily.... J/K

[C_is_for_Cookie]

I dunno, I find it awfully suspicious that there even is a Forever 27 Club.

[Brookie]

The "27 Club" myth exists due to the human brain's tendency to look for patterns and ignore things that don't fit. Saying 27 has significance is like arguing that Aaliyah, Buddy Holly, and George Harrison all died before the average non-famous person because they had double letters in their names. (Whoa, spooky!)

John Lennon too - bada bing!