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Thread: World chocolate shortage possibly ahead

  1. #1
    Elite Member moomies's Avatar
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    Exclamation World chocolate shortage possibly ahead

    World chocolate shortage ahead?

    Cocoa futures hit three-year highs as a drought in Africa has combined with changing consumer tastes to put pressure on the chocolate supply.



    By Elizabeth Strott

    It's every chocolate lover's nightmare: A chocolate shortage.
    A drought in Western Africa and unrest in the Ivory Coast -- the world's biggest cocoa producer -- has combined with rising consumer taste for cocoa-rich dark chocolate to raise concerns about a shortage in supply.
    As a result, cocoa futures have been trading at three-year highs, with prices rallying since the beginning of the year.
    "In the last few months, cocoa prices have rallied on expectations for a smaller crop from the Ivory Coast and Ghana," said Boyd Cruel, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading who covers the cocoa market.

    World production of cocoa is down 5.5% on a year-over-year basis from 2005-2006, according to the International Cocoa Organization -- and cocoa's price has risen 44% since November 2005.
    But don't fret over $5 Snickers bars just yet: Cruel said that markets have already factored in the supply issue. The highs reached this week are technical in nature, he said, because news of the drought has been out for months.
    Another commodities analyst agrees.
    "On the fundamental side, we don't expect to see changes in demand," Barclays' Sudakshina Unnikrishnan told Bloomberg News from London. "Going into the second quarter, the real wild card continues to be based on the conditions and political situation in Ivory Coast."

    Blame the trend?

    Part of the problem, say chocolate experts: As customer taste has shifted from milk chocolate to dark, demand for cocoa has risen; the darker the chocolate, the more cocoa is required for production.

    Dark chocolate has recently been considered the "healthier" of the chocolates, with high levels of flavonoid antioxidants; it has also been found to lower blood pressure.
    Chocolate manufacturers have been happy to encourage the trend, as dark chocolate is also a higher-margin product.
    "Consumers are very interested in the goodness benefits of chocolate, including the antioxidants found naturally in dark chocolate," said Michele Buck, Hershey (HSY, news, msgs) chief marketing officer, in a statement today. "This interest is driving explosive growth in dark chocolate."
    In the U.K., dark chocolate bars are outselling their milk chocolate relatives in the retail chain Woolworth's for the first time ever. In the United States, retail sales of chocolate have climbed about 3% every year since 2000, the National Confectioners Association has reported, with dark chocolate one of the fastest-growing categories.


    "Two years ago the hot thing in chocolate was white. Now dark is the flavor of the month," Woolworths CEO Trevor Bish-Jones told British paper The Independent. "Consumers are doing the same thing in chocolate as in the rest of the food market. They are trading up and being more discerning about what they buy," Bish-Jones said. Should candy companies worry?

    In the short term, candy companies like Hershey and Cadbury Schweppes (CSG, news, msgs)should be able to absorb the boost in price, as they hedge aggressively for the volatile cocoa market.

    "In terms of resell prices, this won't have a major impact immediately," Alaron Trading's Cruel said.
    But there could be problems down the road if the drought continues.

    Nestle, Hershey and Cadbury did not return calls for comment.
    Three million tons of cocoa is produced around the world each year, worth $5.1 billion.

    source:
    World chocolate shortage ahead? – MSN Money

    If you think it's crazy, you ain't seen a thing. Just wait until we're goin down in flames.

  2. #2
    Elite Member Aella's Avatar
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    Eeep, should we start panicking? I'm not the type of person to freak out over an article, but just glancing at this particular title was scary.

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    Elite Member CRAZY 'N' NUTS's Avatar
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    OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT'S IT, IM GONNA STOCK UP NOW!!!!!!!!! IF ANY OF YOU TOUCH MY CHOCOLATE, I 'LL HAVE TO KILL YOU!!!!!!


    i eat so much of that stuff that my parents worry that im gonna die of a sugar overdose

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    Elite Member Sleuth's Avatar
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    *screams like a little bitch* that would be a tragedy - i love milk chocolate damn all those greedy dark chocolate lovers you are ruining it for everyone!!!
    Alicia Silverstone: "I think that the film Clueless was very deep. I think it was deep in the way that it was very light. I think lightness has to come from a very deep place if it's true lightness."

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    Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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    Elite Member shedevilang's Avatar
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    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO (faints)
    Silly bitches, twitchy links are NOT for kids!-Mel

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    Dark chocolate has always been my favorite. But I think I could do without if there was a shortage. Everytime the demand goes up for a certain food, the quality unfortunately goes down anyway.
    If you can't be a good example -- then you'll just have to be a horrible warning

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    as long as ice-cream stays i will be ok

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    Elite Member Honey's Avatar
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    Mmmm I love chocolate...and chocolate labradors

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    Elite Member shedevilang's Avatar
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    i'm gonna go buy all the reese's and hershey carmel and kitkats i can find tomorrow
    Silly bitches, twitchy links are NOT for kids!-Mel

  11. #11
    Elite Member arie_skop's Avatar
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    no, that would be awful, No chocolate is this world.

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    Friend of Gossip Rocks! buttmunch's Avatar
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    If I had a fallout shelter, I would stock it top to bottom with the stuff. Woman cannot live without her chocolate..especially when she's got the painters in.
    'Those who sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.' Ben Franklin

    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross."
    --Sinclair Lewis

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    what does it mean to have the painters in...

  14. #14
    Elite Member cynic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by buttmunch View Post
    If I had a fallout shelter, I would stock it top to bottom with the stuff. Woman cannot live without her chocolate..especially when she's got the painters in.

    Hey Butt, good to see ya......too bad we are passing by each other.....I'm planning on buying a ticket on one of the space flights.....global warming is not nearly as dangerous for this planet as a chocolate shortage will be........

  15. #15
    Elite Member shedevilang's Avatar
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    no lie a chocolate shortage could cause major chaos especially during PMS lol
    Silly bitches, twitchy links are NOT for kids!-Mel

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