I don't see a nose job. A lot has to do with her face maturing.
Another big issue being camera lens warping. I notice it with some of
the first comparison shots posted. If you hold your camera close to
your face and take a picture, and then have someone else stand far
away and zoom into your face there will be extreme differences in
your features. It's easily possible that the photographers in the later
candids were standing much farther away than the earlier photo first
posted.
I'd like to see some recent shots of her getting out of her car or
something where she's right up close to the paparazzi taking her
picture.
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